Quant/Bitcoin Market Overview

Summary
• Price action shows a bearish trend with a 0.000703 → 0.0006874 dip and a partial recovery into 0.0007083.
• Low volume and turnover during the initial hours suggest weak participation and indecision.
• A bullish reversal appears at 0.0006997 followed by a sharp rally into 0.0007163, indicating potential short-covering.

Market Overview

Quant/Bitcoin (QNTBTC) opened at 0.0007033 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0007163 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET. The pair hit a high of 0.0007163 and a low of 0.0006874 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 258.598, and notional turnover was 184.223. The price action reflected a consolidation phase followed by a breakout rally in the latter half of the day.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure revealed a bearish trend from the early hours, with a strong 15-minute bearish candle at 17:45 ET driving the price down. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 21:45 ET, followed by a strong continuation to 0.0007163. Key support levels appear at 0.0006997 and 0.0006963, while resistance levels are visible at 0.0007030 and 0.0007080.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have been in a bearish crossover until around 03:00 ET, where the 20-period MA began to cross above the 50-period MA, signaling a potential reversal. The 50-period MA appears to provide support near 0.0007010, which was tested multiple times during the day. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA appears to offer a strong support level at 0.0007050, which was tested and rejected during the initial bearish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line was bearish in the early hours, with a narrowing histogram and negative divergence, but began to converge and turn positive after 03:00 ET. The RSI dipped into oversold territory at 0.0006963, signaling a potential bounce, and later crossed into overbought at 0.0007163, indicating short-term momentum fatigue.

Bollinger Bands

The price spent most of the session within the Bollinger Bands, with a contraction in volatility observed during the early morning hours. A breakout occurred at 05:15 ET, with the price closing near the upper band, suggesting a bullish breakout. However, the price retracted into the upper half of the bands in the afternoon, indicating continued bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained low during the first 6 hours of the session, with the highest volume spike occurring at 21:45 ET (14.169 volume). The largest notional turnover was recorded at 15:30 ET (55.587), coinciding with a strong bullish candle. A divergence between price and volume was observed during the final 3 hours, where price continued to rise but volume remained moderate, suggesting potential exhaustion in the bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.0006874 → 0.0007163 swing, the 61.8% level is at 0.0007030 and the 38.2% level is at 0.0007060. The 0.0007060 level was briefly tested but rejected, while the 0.0007030 level acted as support during the afternoon consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed overbought RSI level at 0.0007163, a backtest could explore a short-term RSI overbought sell strategy, triggering a sell signal when RSI crosses above 70, with a stop-loss at the most recent 15-minute low. This would align with the observed bearish divergence and potential exhaustion in the bullish trend, though confirmation of the signal is best sought with a bearish candlestick pattern or a rejection at the upper Bollinger Band.