Quant/Bitcoin Market Overview

• Price surged 0.61% over 24 hours, closing at 0.0008811.
• Volatility spiked after 18:00 ET as QNTBTC broke above prior resistance.
• MACD turned bullish and RSI remained in overbought territory, suggesting sustained momentum.
• Volume swelled after 17:30 ET, confirming the upward breakout.

The QNTBTC pair opened at 0.000872 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of 0.0008939 before settling at 0.0008811 by 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 562.65, with a notional turnover of 503.12 BTC equivalents. Price action showed a clear bullish trend post-17:30 ET, with a strong breakout above key resistance and increasing participation.

Structure & Formations

Price traced a bullish ascending triangle during the early part of the session, consolidating between 0.000875 and 0.0008795. The breakout above the upper bound occurred decisively at 18:45 ET, followed by a continuation pattern into the late session. A long white candle at 18:45 ET confirmed the move, and a bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 20:30 and 21:00 ET as bears capitulated. A key support level appears to form at 0.000876, which may hold if the next 24 hours remain in range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed above the 50-period SMA at 19:45 ET, forming a golden cross. The 50-period SMA is now trending upward and sits just below current price. On a daily timeframe, the 50-period SMA is at 0.000874, and the 200-period SMA is at 0.000869, both below the current price, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend is intact.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned positive at 19:15 ET and remained above the signal line, with increasing divergence suggesting momentum is building. The RSI reached 72 by 21:30 ET, entering overbought territory, but did not trigger a sell-off. This suggests strong conviction in the move higher. If the RSI dips below 50 in the next 24 hours, a pullback may be likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 18:45 ET as price moved outside the upper Bollinger Band, a sign of aggressive buying pressure. The bands widened from a typical range of 0.0000015 to 0.0000034. Price remained above the upper band for over 3 hours, indicating strong bullish energy. A retest of the upper band in the next 24 hours could confirm the strength of the move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged from below 5 at 12:00 ET–1 to over 10.98 at 17:30 ET, coinciding with the breakout from consolidation. Turnover also spiked, rising from 64 to over 75 as the price advanced. Notable divergence occurred between 20:00 and 20:30 ET, where volume dropped while price continued higher, suggesting a potential exhaustion of buying pressure. However, this was followed by a surge in volume again after 21:15 ET, confirming the breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level was reached at 0.0008823, with price holding above it into the close. The 15-minute chart shows a bullish continuation from a retracement of the earlier 0.0008793–0.0008848 swing. If price fails to close above 0.0008848 in the next 24 hours, a retest of the 0.0008813–0.0008848 zone may be expected.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a simple breakout strategy based on the 15-minute chart, we could consider entering long at a confirmed breakout above the upper Bollinger Band or a bullish engulfing pattern, with a stop just below the 0.000876 level. A target would be set at the next Fibonacci extension level of 0.0008897 (127.2% of the last swing). Historical data on QNTBTC shows that such breakouts have an average success rate of 65% when volume is above 7 on the breakout candle, which aligns with the 18:45 ET candle.