Qualcomm Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: The technical outlook for Qualcomm is weak with a low internal diagnostic score of 1.88, while fund flows show a positive trend with a high score of 7.34.

Qualcomm has seen a recent price rise of 0.68%, but this is not supported by strong analyst sentiment or technical indicators. Investors should approach with caution given the bearish technical signals.

News Highlights

Recent news impacting Qualcomm includes:

• McKinsey on Tariffs: New research from McKinsey explores the U.S. tariff policy and its impact on the semiconductor industry, highlighting potential disruption for Qualcomm and peers.
• Japan-U.S. Cooperation: Japan plans to propose increased cooperation with the U.S. on rare earths and semiconductors. This could help reduce reliance on China and support the sector’s long-term stability.
• ETF Outflows: The US Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) faced a $750 million net outflow in May 2025. This outflow could signal broader industry concerns and may affect Qualcomm shares.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The average rating from analysts is 4.00, but the weighted rating, adjusted for performance history, is much lower at 1.88, reflecting a mixed and inconsistent view. Recent analyst ratings include both "Strong Buy" and "Underperform" signals, with no clear consensus.

Analyst ratings do not align with the current rising price trend, suggesting a potential mismatch between market action and expectations.

Key Fundamentals

• EV/EBIT: 25.68 (score: 1)
• CFOA (Cash Flow from Operating Activities): 4.61% (score: 3)
• GPOA (Gross Profit to Operating Activities): 10.91% (score: 2)
• Cost of Sales Ratio: 44.58% (score: 1)
• Net Profit Ratio: 100.00% (score: 1)
• Total Profit YoY Growth: 23.44% (score: 0)

Qualcomm shows strong net profit performance but faces challenges with high cost of sales and weak cash flow metrics. These mixed signals suggest caution in the near term.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is moving in: Large and extra-large investors are showing positive inflow trends, with inflow ratios at 49.70% and 50.49%, respectively.

Retail investors are also active: Small investor inflow ratio stands at 50.93%, suggesting broad-based participation in Qualcomm’s recent price rise.

Overall, the inflow ratio is 50.37%, with positive trends across all investor categories, indicating a bullish sentiment in fund flows despite weak technical signals.

Key Technical Signals

Internal diagnostic scores (0-10) for key technical indicators:

• WR Overbought: Score: 1.00 — Suggests overbought conditions with a historical average return of -1.37% and win rate of 30.91%.
• Bullish Engulfing: Score: 1.00 — Historically weak, with a win rate of just 12.5% and average return of -2.00%.
• Ex-Dividend Date: Score: 1.28 — Mixed impact, with a win rate of 25.00% and average return of 0.83%.
• Hanging Man: Score: 1.00 — A bearish reversal pattern with a win rate of 33.33% and average return of -1.29%.

Recent chart patterns: A Hanging Man on 2025-09-08 and WR Overbought on 2025-09-12 suggest a potential reversal in the bullish trend.

Technical momentum is bearish, with 5 bearish signals out of 6 analyzed. The overall trend is weak, and traders are advised to avoid entering long positions at current levels.

Conclusion

Actionable Takeaway: Investors should consider waiting for a pull-back in Qualcomm shares before initiating new positions. While money flows are positive, the technical outlook is bearish, and analysts are divided in their ratings.

Watch for further signs of technical confirmation and upcoming industry developments, particularly in semiconductor policy and ETF flows, which could influence the stock’s direction.