Qtum/Tether Market Overview

• QTUM/USDT fell from $2.34 to $1.90 amid a sharp 15-minute selloff on October 10.
• Price found key support near $1.90 before rebounding with a bullish divergence in RSI.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 10-hour range from $2.34 to $1.219, signaling strong dislocation.
• Bollinger Bands showed price near lower band during the bounce, indicating a possible short-term rebound.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the breakdown to $1.90 but normalized during the bounce, suggesting cautious buying.

Qtum/Tether (QTUMUSDT) opened at $2.311 on October 10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $2.367, dropped to a low of $1.219, and closed at $1.929 by 12:00 ET on October 11. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 2.94 million, while turnover reached $5.39 million. The price experienced a deep pullback, testing support near $1.90 before showing early signs of a bounce.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the past 24 hours displayed a sharp breakdown from $2.367 to $1.219, forming a bearish flag pattern during the decline. A key support level around $1.90 was tested twice and held, suggesting potential short-term resilience. A bullish engulfing pattern formed during the $1.90–$1.929 rebound, indicating a possible reversal. A doji appeared near $1.90, highlighting indecision after the sharp drop.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed sharply during the sell-off, confirming the bearish momentum. By the close of the 24-hour window, the price remained below both moving averages, indicating a continuation of the downtrend. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 200DMA, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias, though the 50DMA is beginning to catch up to the 200DMA, hinting at potential short-term stabilization.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover during the initial breakdown, with a subsequent histogram contraction during the rebound, indicating waning bearish momentum. RSI reached oversold levels near $1.90, signaling possible support. A bullish divergence formed in RSI during the rebound, with RSI rising while the price action remained weak, suggesting a potential near-term bottom.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened during the breakdown, indicating increased volatility. Price reached the lower band during the $1.90 rebound, a sign of potential oversold conditions. The narrowing of the bands during the rebound suggests a potential consolidation phase before the next directional move. Price remains below the midline of the bands, favoring further consolidation or a bearish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown, peaking with the $2.367 to $1.219 decline. Turnover also surged, reflecting strong selling pressure. During the rebound to $1.929, volume decreased, indicating cautious buying. The divergence between volume and price during the rebound suggests that the bounce may be driven by limited accumulation rather than broad-based demand.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels identified key retracement levels during the 24-hour swing. The $1.90 level corresponds to the 61.8% retracement of the earlier decline from $2.367, making it a critical support area. Price action at this level showed strong buying, potentially setting up a 50% retracement target near $1.96. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest further consolidation is likely before a potential test of the 38.2% retracement at $1.97.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be constructed based on the RSI divergence observed near $1.90 and the bullish engulfing candle pattern. A potential long entry could be placed at $1.92 with a stop-loss below $1.90 and a target aligned with the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $1.96. This approach would aim to capture a short-term rebound on fading bearish momentum, leveraging the RSI signal and candlestick confirmation for entry timing.