Qtum/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-13)

• Price formed a bullish breakout above 2.08 before retracing
• Volume surged during 08:45–09:45 ET, aligning with intraday highs
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions after 10:00 ET
• Price found support near 2.03–2.04 and rejected further declines

Qtum/Tether (QTUMUSDT) opened at 1.998 on 2025-10-12 12:00 ET, climbed to 2.112, and closed at 2.085 by 2025-10-13 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 477,296.3 units, with $991,213 in notional turnover.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a strong upward bias early in the 24-hour window, with a 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern forming at 2.07–2.08. A key support level was identified between 2.03 and 2.04, where price bounced off multiple times. A doji near 2.087 at 04:45 ET signaled indecision, followed by a retest and rejection. A key resistance was observed at 2.101, where buyers faltered after a sharp rally.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed above price at around 09:45–10:00 ET, signaling a potential acceleration of the bullish trend. The 50-period SMA on the daily chart remained below the 100-period line, suggesting medium-term bearish bias but with potential for a retest.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned positive at 07:00–08:00 ET and showed strength through 10:00 ET before retreating. RSI climbed to overbought territory (75+), peaking at 2.112, then retreated toward the 50 level by 12:00 ET, indicating potential exhaustion. Price could test 2.08–2.09 again, but RSI divergence suggests a pullback may follow.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded after 08:00–10:00 ET, with price reaching the upper band at 2.112, confirming a strong move. Volatility remained elevated through 11:00 ET before compressing again in the afternoon. Price closed near the midline, suggesting consolidation ahead of the next move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 08:45–09:45 ET window (15–20) as price reached 2.10–2.11, aligning with the breakout phase. Turnover also peaked in line with volume, confirming the strength of the move. Divergence occurred in the afternoon when volume declined but price remained in consolidation, suggesting reduced conviction in the current trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 2.03–2.112 swing were 2.068 (38.2%), 2.096 (50%), and 2.110 (61.8%). Price held above 2.096 until 11:00 ET, then pulled back to 2.08–2.09. A retest of 2.096 may offer a chance for buyers to re-enter ahead of a potential 2.106 target.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves using RSI-14 on the 15-minute chart as an overbought/oversold oscillator, with entries triggered at key Fibonacci retracement levels. Given the recent overbought conditions and pullbacks, a strategy that enters on RSI crossovers below 30 with stop-losses at 2.07–2.08 and takes profit at 2.10–2.11 may be effective. This approach should be tested on a supported symbol like BINANCE:QTUMUSDT to ensure accurate data alignment for backtesting.