QQQ Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to $630+ Target

• QQQ trades at $625.14, down 0.05% from open but holding above 30D support at $622.74
• Put/Call OI ratio at 1.52 suggests bearish caution, but top OTM calls cluster near $630-$650
• Massive block trades on 12/19 $545 puts and $630 calls hint at strategic positioning

Here's what I'm seeing: QQQ is dancing on a tightrope between bullish technicals and cautious options positioning. The stock clings to its 52-week high while options traders are hedging for volatility. But the real story lies in the $630 strike level - where both call OI and block trades converge. Let's break down why this could be a breakout catalyst.

Bullish Pressure in the OI Data

The options market is sending mixed signals. While puts dominate open interest (1.52 ratio), the top OTM calls for 12/19 expiration are all clustered between $630 and $650. The QQQ20251219C630 contract alone has 74,081 open contracts - more than double the next closest strike. This suggests institutional players are accumulating upside exposure ahead of the December expiration.

But don't ignore the bearish shadows. The QQQ20251219P585 put has 79,514 open contracts, creating a potential short-term ceiling if QQQ approaches $585. The most telling move? A $4.2M block trade on the QQQ20251219P545 put - a deep out-of-the-money strike that could trigger panic selling if the ETF stumbles.

News That Could Tip the Scales

Invesco's reclassification of QQQ from unit investment trust to open-end fund is more than just paperwork. The 10% fee cut and removal of BNY Mellon as trustee could attract new passive investors. But here's the twist: with 50% of shareholder votes already cast (92% in favor), the 51% approval threshold is within reach. This structural change might not move the needle today, but it sets the stage for 2026 inflows.

Meanwhile, QQQ's role as an AI proxy keeps it in the spotlight. With cloud computing markets projected to grow 218%, the ETF's heavy Alphabet weighting could drive momentum - especially if the Fed signals rate cuts in early 2026.

Actionable Trade Ideas

For options traders: QQQ20251219C630 is the standout. With 74k open contracts and a $4.2M block trade, this strike represents a sweet spot between risk and reward. Buy-to-open this call if QQQ breaks above its 20D EMA at $627.50. Target $635-$640 by 12/19, with a tight stop below $625.

Stock traders: Consider entries near $622.74 (30D support) with a first target at $630. The 200D MA at $547.30 remains a critical floor. For a bearish hedge, buy QQQ20251219P585 puts if QQQ dips below $620 - but watch for short-covering pressure at $623.74 (30D resistance).

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will test QQQ's resolve. With the 12/19 options expiration looming, the $630 strike could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. But keep an eye on the $585 put wall - if QQQ stumbles below $620, that bearish block trade might force a retest of the 200D MA. This is a classic "bullish in the short-term, bearish in the long-term" setup. Position yourself to ride the wave, but keep your seatbelt handy.