QQQ Options Signal Bullish Bias: Focus on $625 Strike as Fed Outlooks Shift

• Put/Call ratio of 1.53 shows bearish sentiment, but heavy call open interest at $627-$790 hints at upside potential.
• Block trades at QQQ20260116C625 suggest institutional positioning ahead of Friday’s expiry.
• Technical indicators (RSI 69, bullish Kline) align with recent inflows and billionaire bets on tech growth.

Here’s the takeaway: QQQ is perched at a crossroads. The options market is bracing for a directional move—calls and puts are both heating up—but technicals and news flow lean decisively bullish. If you’re trading this ETF, the $625 strike is your focal point. Let’s break it down.

The $625 Strike: A Battle Zone for Bulls and Bears

Options data tells a story of tension. Put open interest dominates (75,072 at $610), but call OI isn’t far behind (56,916 at $627). This Friday’s block trades—$8.1M sold and $4M bought at QQQ20260116C625—hint at a whale hedging or accumulating calls. Why does this matter? If QQQ cracks $625, those puts could trigger a cascade of selling. But if it holds above $625, the calls might force a short-covering rally.

The next Friday’s options (expiring Jan 23) show a similar pattern: puts at $620 ($9,443 OI) vs. calls at $630 ($11,247 OI). This suggests a longer-term bet on a rebound. The key? QQQ needs to stay above its 30-day support ($623.80) to keep the bulls in control.

News Flow: Tech Optimism Outweighs Macro Jitters

Recent headlines paint QQQ as a growth darling. Billionaire Chris Rokos is doubling down on tech, and Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson is calling for a "Big Beautiful Bill"-driven rally. These signals align with QQQ’s recent inflows and strong earnings from Apple and NVIDIA. But don’t ignore the puts—Federal Reserve uncertainty and tax slowdowns still linger. The market isn’t all-in on a tech boom yet; it’s hedging its bets.

Actionable Trades: Calls, Puts, and Price Levels

For options traders:

• QQQ20260116C625 (this Friday’s expiry) is a must-watch. If QQQ closes above $626.54 (intraday high), this call could surge.
• QQQ20260123P620 (next Friday’s expiry) offers downside protection if the Fed news turns sour.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $623.80 (30-day support) with a stop-loss below $622.26 (intraday low).
• Target zone: $631.19 (Bollinger Upper Band) if RSI breaks 70.
• Hedge with QQQ20260116P610 if you’re long the ETF.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 48 hours will test QQQ’s resolve. A close above $626.54 could trigger a breakout, while a drop below $622.58 (200D support) might force a reevaluation of the bullish case. Either way, the options market is pricing in a directional move. If you’re positioned, ride the momentum—but keep an eye on that $625 strike. It’s the line in the sand.

One last thought: This isn’t just about QQQ. It’s about the broader tech sector’s fight for dominance in a shifting macro landscape. Play it smart, and let the data guide your next move.