Rotación del sector en el cuarto trimestre y las implicaciones del mercado en el primer trimestre de 2025: bajo rendimiento de la defensa y potencial de recuperación cíclica

The fourth quarter of 2024 and the early months of 2025 have underscored a dramatic shift in sector dynamics, with defensive sectors ceding ground to cyclical and growth-oriented plays. This rotation reflects evolving investor sentiment, macroeconomic tailwinds, and the accelerating impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on capital allocation. As we dissect these trends, the implications for portfolio strategy in 2025 become increasingly clear.

Q4 2024: Cyclical Sectors Lead as Defensives Retreat

In Q4 2024, cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary and industrials outperformed defensive peers, driven by robust earnings from large-cap technology firms and optimism around AI-driven innovation. Consumer cyclicals, including retail and automotive, surged by 10.47% for the quarter, while financials gained 7.79% amid post-election market optimism. The momentum was fueled by strong results from tech giants like NVIDIA, Apple, and Amazon, which collectively drove growth stocks to new heights.

Conversely, defensive sectors like utilities and real estate struggled. Real estate stocks fell over 7%, weighed down by rising interest rates and shifting investor preferences toward high-growth opportunities. This divergence highlights a broader market tilt toward sectors poised to benefit from macroeconomic expansion and technological disruption.

Q1 2025: Cyclical Volatility and Defensive Resilience

The early months of 2025 brought a more nuanced picture. While cyclical sectors initially rallied on hopes of tax cuts and infrastructure spending, escalating trade tensions and tariff concerns curtailed their gains. By mid-Q1, defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples emerged as safe havens, outperforming cyclicals by a stark 5.2% versus -7.9% year-to-date.

The Intech Investment report attributes this shift to heightened market volatility and uncertainty around global supply chains. Meanwhile, BlackRock emphasized the role of defensive equities in mitigating risk during turbulent periods, though it noted that utilities-once a classic defensive play-have diverged due to their AI-driven growth potential.

Market Implications: A Tale of Two Sectors

The contrasting performances of defensive and cyclical sectors in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 reveal critical insights for investors. First, the AI revolution is reshaping traditional sector classifications. Utilities, historically viewed as defensive, have become growth-oriented due to surging demand for energy from AI data centers. Schwab's analysis highlights this transformation, noting that companies like NRG Energy and Constellation Energy have rallied amid infrastructure demands.

Second, while defensive sectors like consumer staples remain resilient-driven by inelastic demand for essentials-they face headwinds from inflation and margin pressures. In contrast, cyclical sectors, though currently underperforming, are projected to outpace defensives through 2027 as macroeconomic conditions stabilize. This suggests a potential cyclical rebound, particularly in industrials and materials, if trade tensions ease and fiscal stimulus materializes.

Strategic Considerations for 2025

Investors must balance short-term defensive allocations with long-term cyclical opportunities. Defensive sectors offer stability in a volatile environment, but their growth potential is limited. Conversely, cyclical sectors, while volatile, are positioned to benefit from AI-driven demand and macroeconomic normalization. T. Rowe Price advises a diversified approach, emphasizing the need to account for shifting correlations among asset classes.

The key takeaway is clear: portfolios should prioritize sectors with both defensive resilience and growth catalysts. Utilities, for instance, now straddle both categories, offering exposure to AI-driven demand while retaining some defensive characteristics. Similarly, consumer staples remain a cornerstone for downside protection, even as their margins face pressure.

Conclusion

The sector rotation observed in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 underscores the dynamic interplay between macroeconomic forces, technological innovation, and investor behavior. While defensive sectors have provided a refuge in early 2025, the long-term trajectory of cyclical and growth-oriented plays remains compelling. As AI reshapes industries and fiscal policies evolve, strategic positioning will be critical to navigating the year ahead.