GO's Q4 Earnings Coming Up: Will the Stock Extend Its Beat Streak?
As Grocery Outlet Holdings Corporation GO prepares to unveil its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on March 4, after market close. Investors are eager to see if the company can beat market expectations.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.24 billion, implying 12.5% growth from the prior year. Meanwhile, the consensus mark for earnings has been steady at 21 cents per share over the past 30 days, and calls for growth of 40% from the year-ago period. GOGO-- has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 29.9%, on average.
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Quote
Key Factors to Observe for GO's Q4 Earnings
Grocery Outlet’s fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from the continued strength of its differentiated off-price model, which centers on opportunistic sourcing of quality, name-brand consumables and fresh products. The company is executing on multiple growth levers, including deeper market penetration, expanding private-label offerings, and renewed merchandising discipline, all of which support traffic and strengthen its value proposition in a cautious consumer environment.
Another key driver heading into the final quarter has been the rollout of the store refresh initiative, which Grocery OutletGO-- began piloting in the third quarter and plans to expand broadly. The refresh program focuses on improving store layout, standardizing and expanding core assortments and elevating in-store value messaging. As additional stores were refreshed late in the year, improved ease of shop, better in-stock positions and clearer communication of value are likely to have enhanced the customer experience and contributed positively to sales trends.
That said, certain headwinds may have tempered fourth-quarter performance. In the third quarter, gross margin faced pressure from promotional activity and markdowns tied to seasonal inventory, and while management course-corrected its marketing and promotional mix, the lingering effects of softer traffic are likely to have extended into the early fourth quarter. We expect comparable-store sales to rise 0.4% in the final quarter, showing a sharp deceleration from preceding quarters.
What the Zacks Model Says About GO’s Q4 Earnings
As investors prepare for Grocery Outlet’s fourth-quarter announcement, the question looms regarding earnings beat or miss. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for GO this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.
GO has an Earnings ESP of -0.04% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are three companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:
BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. BJ has an Earnings ESP of +5.69% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share is pegged at 93 cents, remaining flat compared to the previous year. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.6 billion, which indicates an increase of 6.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. BJ has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.3%, on average.
Colgate-Palmolive Company CL has an Earnings ESP of +0.26% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share is pegged at 95 cents, implying 4.4% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.2 billion, which indicates an increase of 5.6% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. CL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4%, on average.
Kimberly-Clark Corporation KMB has an Earnings ESP of +0.84% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share is pegged at $1.79, implying a 7.3% year-over-year decline.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.1 billion, which indicates a decline of 14.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. KMB has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.9%, on average.
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Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB): Free Stock Analysis Report
Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL): Free Stock Analysis Report
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ): Free Stock Analysis Report
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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