Contradicciones en las llamadas de resultados del tercer trimestre de 2026: Ganancias brutas, tendencias de unidades y cambios en la estrategia de farmacia

Financials Results

• Revenue: Not explicitly provided; focus on identical sales grew 2.4% (net of 10-20 bps government shutdown headwind).
• EPS: $0.72 per diluted share (adjusted), in line with expectations.
• Gross Margin: 27.4%, a decline of 55 basis points year-over-year (excluding fuel and LIFO), but improved sequentially versus Q2.
• Operating Margin: Not explicitly provided; focus on adjusted EBITDA of $1.039 billion and SG&A expense rate down 33 bps YOY.

Guidance:

• Identical sales expected to be 2.2% to 2.5% for fiscal 2025 (narrowed from prior range).
• Adjusted EBITDA expected to be $3.825B to $3.875B for fiscal 2025.
• Adjusted EPS narrowed to a range of $2.08 to $2.16 for fiscal 2025.
• Effective income tax rate expected to be 23% to 24%.
• Capital expenditures unchanged at a range of $1.8B to $1.9B.
• Fourth quarter identical sales estimated to have a 65-70 bps headwind from Inflation Reduction Act, equating to 16-18 bps full-year impact with no effect on adjusted EBITDA.

Business Commentary:

• Sales Growth and Strategic Initiatives:
• Albertsons Companies reported identical sales growth of 2.4% for Q3 2025, despite a challenging consumer backdrop and temporary headwinds like a government shutdown and SNAP delays.

• The growth was supported by strategic initiatives such as targeted price investments, digital sales increase of 21%, and advancements in technology and AI transformation.

• Digital Sales and Customer Engagement:

• Digital sales rose by 21% in Q3 2025, with penetration reaching 9.5%.

• This growth was driven by enhanced digital customer experience initiatives, including AI-powered features like Ask AI search and autonomous shopping assistants, which increased basket size and customer loyalty.

• Pharmacy and Health Segment Performance:

• The pharmacy and health business experienced an 18% sales increase in Q3 2025, bolstered by immunization offerings, GLP-1 therapies, and core prescriptions.

• Growth was attributed to strong execution in these areas, capturing leading market share and deepening customer relationships.

• Productivity and Cost Management:

• Albertsons achieved improvements in productivity, contributing to a 33 basis points year-over-year reduction in selling and administrative expense rate.

• This was achieved through labor optimization, process simplification, and leveraging technology and automation across merchandising, supply chain, and store operations.

• Loyalty Program and Media Collective:

• Loyalty membership grew by 12% to over 49 million members in Q3 2025, with 40% of engaged households opting for cash off rewards.
• The growth in membership and engagement fueled deeper customer interaction and provided rich data for targeted marketing, enhancing the media collective's performance with double-digit growth in on-site media.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management expressed confidence in executing their strategic priorities, citing "surgical price investments" driving unit growth, "strong execution" in pharmacy, and "meaningful efficiencies" from productivity initiatives. They stated, "Our mission is clear: growing customers for life..." and "We're building a future where every decision is smarter, every process is more efficient." They also expressed confidence in delivering long-term returns: "We're confident that this transformation will help drive sustainable value."

Q&A:

• Question from Mark Carden (UBS): Concerns about the overall pricing environment and risk for incremental price investments.
  Response: Management is taking a surgical, data-driven approach to price investments, seeing green shoots in invested categories, and intends to continue investing thoughtfully while also focusing on own brands and personalized promotions.

• Question from Mark Carden (UBS): Progress on capitalizing on drug store closures and getting new pharmacy shoppers to cross over to grocery.
  Response: Pharmacy growth is largely organic from existing grocery shoppers, deepening customer relationships and engagement over a 1-2 year journey, with a structural advantage from services provided.

• Question from Leah Jordan (Goldman Sachs): High-level puts and takes for FY '26 given headwinds and confidence in the algorithm.
  Response: Confident in the algorithm due to working Customers for Life strategy, upside in pharmacy, digital, media collective, value enhancement, technology, and productivity, all building on each other incrementally.

• Question from Leah Jordan (Goldman Sachs): Detail on Q4 ID sales guidance drivers and quarter-to-date trends.
  Response: The wide Q4 guidance range is driven by the 65-70 bps Inflation Reduction Act headwind, potential upside from GLP-1 adoption, and cautious view on industry units; current trends without the drug pricing impact are as expected.

• Question from Edward Kelly (Wells Fargo): Ability to achieve algo in FY '26 given potential unit pressures and levers to pull.
  Response: The plan has levers to meet the algorithm; the Inflation Reduction Act impacts top line but is near neutral to bottom line, and the algorithm is based on comparable 2025 growth.

• Question from Edward Kelly (Wells Fargo): Progress on $1.5B productivity savings plan and cadence into 2026.
  Response: Executing well against the $1.5B plan, achieving results in SG&A, with new opportunities expected; productivity is gradual and incremental, building throughout 2026.

• Question from John Heinbockel (Guggenheim Securities): Wallet share differences among loyalty deciles and pharmacy customers.
  Response: Digitally engaged customers spend 2-3x more; engagement with online ordering, loyalty, and pharmacy increases this to 4-5x, with AI tools helping deepen baskets and repeat trips.

• Question from John Heinbockel (Guggenheim Securities): Unit trends in price-invested divisions and potential to exit non-core markets.
  Response: Seen strong unit improvement in price-invested categories, moving to positive or lessening decline; evaluating entire store portfolio, with closures planned and focus on strongest markets.

• Question from Rupesh Parikh (Oppenheimer & Co.): Gross margin outlook for Q4 and improvement expectations.
  Response: Q4 gross margin should be modeled like Q2, as Q3 saw exceptionally strong pharmacy margin from timing of flu/COLOR, which will reverse in Q4.

• Question from Rupesh Parikh (Oppenheimer & Co.): Potential impact of GLP-1 pill format as a tailwind for next year.
  Response: The pill form could be a tailwind for patient accessibility but is not expected to have a material short-term impact on adjusted EBITDA.

• Question from Thomas Palmer (JPMorgan): Promotional environment intensity and funding sources.
  Response: Promotional environment remains aggressive; Albertsons is a promotional merchant leveraging buying better together to secure lower COGS and fund promotions where needed.

• Question from Uriel Zachary Abraham (Morgan Stanley): Composition of sequential unit trend improvement.
  Response: Unit improvement credited to surgical price investments and loyalty-led value, with customers remaining price-sensitive, smaller baskets, and some trade down.

• Question from Uriel Zachary Abraham (Morgan Stanley): Economic model and profit curve for digital sales.
  Response: Digital sales up 21%; profitability improving with scale and AI, expected to reach profitability possibly by end of this year or next, excluding retail media.

• Question from Kelly Bania (BMO Capital Markets): Progress on national buying campaign and gross margin outlook.
  Response: National buying benefits expected in year 2/3 of productivity program; AI-driven merchandising intelligence is optimizing price and promotion profitability.

• Question from Kelly Bania (BMO Capital Markets): Possibility of flattish units by year-end and fresh vs. branded performance.
  Response: Did not assume flat units entering 2026; strong unit inflection in price-invested categories supports confidence, but industry units remain negative.

• Question from Paul Lejuez (Citi): Performance by income demographic in-store versus online.
  Response: Appeal stronger to middle/upper income; low-income customers have smaller baskets, middle-income show trade down, high-income are value-conscious; leveraging loyalty to deliver value across cohorts.

• Question from Paul Lejuez (Citi): ID sales ex-pharmacy pricing vs. units in Q3 and inflation pass-through.
  Response: Q4 trends expected similar to Q3; CPI was up 2% in Q3, but Albertsons passed through less than that to customers, as seen in margins.

Contradiction Point 1

Gross Margin and Productivity Savings Timing

This represents a substantial shift in the narrative around a core financial initiative—the $1.5 billion productivity savings plan. The contradiction lies in the changing emphasis on the *timing and drivers* of savings, moving from a specific, technology-enabled future benefit (gross margin expansion) to a present-focused, programmatic update with a different cadence, which directly impacts near-term financial forecasting.

What is the progress on the $1.5 billion productivity savings plan and the timeline to 2026? - Edward Kelly (Wells Fargo)

20260107-2026 Q3: The company is executing well against the **$1.5 billion plan**... Productivity gains are flowing to the bottom line... The company will provide a detailed update on the productivity agenda for 2026 in the Q4 discussion, with **new opportunities expected to build gradually.** - Susan Morris(CEO), Sharon McCollam(CFO)

Which productivity initiatives are prioritized short-term vs. long-term in the 3-year plan, and what is the cost savings shift between 2025’s halves? - Leah Jordan (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.)

2026Q2: **The bulk of 2025 savings are SG&A-related**... Future savings will increasingly come from **gross margin expansion**... [using] technology-enhanced vendor negotiations (e.g., using AI with OpenAI). The **major benefits from national buying are expected in years 2 and 3 of the productivity program**. - Susan Morris(CEO), Sharon McCollam(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

Unit Trend Outlook and Algorithm Confidence

This is a critical contradiction regarding a foundational element of the company's long-term growth algorithm—unit trends. The shift from a confident expectation of reaching near-flat units by a specific target (FY26) to a definitive statement that flat units are no longer assumed in the near term represents a material change in market outlook and a key performance metric.

Is the goal of flat units by year-end still possible? How are fresh versus branded categories performing? - Kelly Bania (BMO Capital Markets)

20260107-2026 Q3: Given **negative industry unit trends with no clear catalyst for improvement**, the company **does not assume or expect flat units in Q4 or into 2026**. - Sharon McCollam(CFO)

When do you expect to achieve positive unit growth, and will the pharmacy segment contribute? - John Heinbockel (Guggenheim Securities)

2025Q2: The target is to reach **near flat units as part of the algorithm entering fiscal 2026** (or sooner if industry conditions allow). ... The company is confident in achieving **2+ percent identical sales growth and slightly better adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026**. - Sharon McCollam(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Pharmacy Growth Drivers

This contradiction highlights a significant shift in strategic emphasis for a key high-margin business segment. The narrative moves from attributing substantial growth to a specific, external factor (GLP-1 segment, representing ~half of growth) to framing growth as an organic, engagement-driven process within existing stores, downplaying the material impact of a previously cited major driver.

Is the GLP-1 pill format considered a tailwind for next year? - Rupesh Parikh (Oppenheimer & Co.)

20260107-2026 Q3: The **pill format (vs. shots) is seen as a potential tailwind** due to improved accessibility. - Susan Morris(CEO)

What is the contribution of GLP-1s to pharmacy growth, and is new or existing customer engagement driving the remainder? - Mark David Carden (UBS)

2025Q1: **GLP-1s represent about half of pharmacy comp growth**, but script count ex-GLP-1 is also very strong. - Sharon L. McCollam(President & CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

E-Commerce Profitability Timeline

This involves a clear extension of a key operational milestone's expected timeline. Moving from stating the business is "nearing profitability" or "near breakeven" to providing a new, later target ("possibly by end of FY '25 or into FY '26") constitutes a material change in the forecast for this important growth initiative.

What is the current economic model for digital sales, and where are you on the profit curve? - Uriel Zachary Abraham (Morgan Stanley)

20260107-2026 Q3: The company expects digital to reach profitability **possibly by end of FY '25 or into FY '26**... - Sharon McCollam(President & CFO)

What are the key drivers of e-commerce's near-breakeven profitability, and what role does Albertsons play in the media collective? - Leah Dianne Jordan (Goldman Sachs)

2025Q1: **E-commerce profitability is near breakeven** due to volume growth, labor efficiency, and transportation cost leverage. - Sharon L. McCollam(President & CFO)

Contradiction Point 5

Pharmacy Customer Acquisition and Growth Strategy

This reveals an inconsistency in the strategic narrative for customer growth in a core business segment. The shift from emphasizing the acquisition of *new* customers (including from competitors) as a significant driver to characterizing growth as predominantly *organic within existing* stores alters the perceived growth engine and market potential for the pharmacy business.

How are you progressing in converting new pharmacy shoppers to purchase more groceries, and are macro pressures affecting this strategy? - Mark Carden (UBS)

20260107-2026 Q3: **Pharmacy growth is largely organic within existing stores**. The bulk of customers are already shopping in grocery, and converting to pharmacy deepens engagement... - Susan Morris(CEO)

In productivity, how much focus is on reducing shrink (theft and waste), and what's the opportunity? How much of pharmacy growth is from existing vs. new customers? - Paul Lejuez (Citigroup Inc.)

2026Q2: The company is gaining **new customers** (including those from closed competitor pharmacies) but the **majority of pharmacy sales will always come from converting existing grocery customers**. The **primary opportunity is bringing in new-to-grocery customers**. - Sharon McCollam(CFO)