Pump.fun/USDC Market Overview

Summary
• Price declined from 0.00379 to 0.003748 amid mixed candlestick patterns and strong selling pressure.
• Key support at 0.003700 and resistance at 0.003800 are critical for near-term direction.
• Volume spiked in the early session before moderating, with no clear divergence from price.

Market Overview

Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) opened at 0.00379 at 12:00 ET–1, touched a high of 0.003958, and a low of 0.003414 before closing at 0.003748 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading period saw a total volume of 1,124,681,355.0 units and a turnover of $415,687,425.00, indicating moderate liquidity and directional uncertainty.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish reversal trend, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. A strong bearish engulfing pattern was observed around 2025-11-04 20:30, followed by a bullish harami near 2025-11-05 02:45, suggesting short-term indecision. A key support level forms at 0.003700 (tested twice with rejection), and resistance appears near 0.003800, which has stalled previous rallies.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have converged near 0.00375–0.00377, currently acting as a minor resistance. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a medium-term bearish bias, though the 50-period MA has not yet crossed below the 100-period MA.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover, aligning with the overall downtrend. RSI hovered between 30–50 throughout the session, indicating moderate momentum but no overbought or oversold conditions. This suggests a continuation of the sideways-to-bearish trend in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 2025-11-04 20:30–22:00 window, with prices reaching the upper and lower bands repeatedly. The latest contraction phase began around 2025-11-05 01:00, with price settling closer to the lower band, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown scenario.

Volume & Turnover

Volumes were highest during the early part of the session (2025-11-04 20:30–23:00), reaching over 115M units, while turnover remained in line with volume. No notable divergence between volume and price was observed, suggesting price movements were supported by on-chain activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.003414–0.003958 swing, 0.003700 aligns with the 50% retracement level, acting as a strong support. The 61.8% retracement sits near 0.003660, which could become a new support if 0.003700 fails. On the upside, 0.003850 (38.2%) and 0.003900 (23.6%) may offer near-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the “Bullish Engulfing 3-Day Hold” strategy was conducted on PUMPUSDC using the same technical indicators referenced in this analysis. The strategy identifies bullish engulfing patterns and enters at the next-day open, holding for exactly three days before exiting. Performance metrics such as CAGR, hit ratio, and average return per trade provide insights into the potential efficacy of trend-following strategies in this volatile market.