Pulmonx Plunges 38.4%: Can This COPD Pioneer Rebound?

Summary
• Pulmonx (LUNG) crashes to $1.94, down 38.4% from $3.15 close
• Q2 revenue growth 15% YoY but full-year guidance cut to $90M–$92M
• U.S. revenue growth at 6% lags 32% international expansion

Today’s 38.4% freefall in Pulmonx shares reflects a perfect storm: revised revenue guidance, slower U.S. adoption of its Zephyr Valve, and a bearish technical setup. With intraday lows at $1.75 and turnover surging to 1.1 million shares, investors are grappling with a stock that’s now trading near its 52-week low of $1.75.

Guidance Cut and U.S. Growth Stumbles Trigger Sell-Off
Pulmonx’s 38.4% decline stems directly from its Q2 earnings report. While the company celebrated 15% YoY revenue growth, it slashed full-year revenue guidance to $90M–$92M from $96M–$98M, citing slower-than-expected U.S. patient conversion. The $0.38/share net loss and 6% U.S. revenue growth—far below the 32% international surge—highlighted geographic imbalances. Management’s admission that U.S. initiatives are taking longer to mature triggered a liquidity crunch, exacerbated by the stock’s 3.14% turnover rate and -1.35 PE ratio.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Technical Downtrend
• 200D MA: $5.52 (well above current price)
• RSI: 60.55 (neutral but bearish bias)
• MACD: 0.07 (bullish) vs. 0.04 signal line (bearish crossover likely)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $1.94 vs. lower band at $2.39 (oversold territory)

Short-term bearish momentum dominates, with RSI and MACD signaling potential for further downside. The stock’s 38.4% plunge has created a volatile environment, but liquidity remains constrained (3.14% turnover).

Top Options:
• LUNG20260220C2.5
- Type: Call
- Strike: $2.50
- Expiry: 2026-02-20
- IV: 70.06% (elevated)
- Delta: 0.408 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.001 (minimal time decay)
- Gamma: 0.393 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $6,129 (liquid)
- Leverage: 8.55% (moderate)
Why it stands out: High gamma and IV suggest potential for rapid premium gains if the stock stabilizes. Payoff under 5% downside (to $1.845): max(0, $1.845 - $2.50) = $0 (no gain), but upside is capped at $0.655 if price rebounds.

• LUNG20260220C2.5
- Same contract as above (only one listed in data).

Aggressive bears should target a $2.00 support break, while technical bulls might test the 200D MA at $5.52 as a long-term benchmark.

Backtest Pulmonx Stock Performance
The backtest of LUNG's performance after a -38% intraday plunge shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of -0.01% over 30 days, the 3-day win rate was 50%, the 10-day win rate was 51.25%, and the 30-day win rate was 52.97%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. However, the maximum return day was on day 0, which suggests that the stock did not recover strongly in the immediate aftermath of the plunge.

Urgent Action: Watch $1.75 Floor and Medtronic’s Lead
Pulmonx’s 38.4% collapse suggests near-term support at its 52-week low of $1.75. A break below this could trigger further selling, but a rebound above the 200D MA at $5.52 would signal a rare long-term entry. Medtronic (MDT), the sector leader, is down 0.87%—a sign of broader medical device weakness. Investors should prioritize liquidity and volatility, favoring options like LUNG20260220C2.5 for directional plays. Action: Short-term traders, target $1.75 as a stop; long-termers, wait for a 50%+ rebound from current levels.