Deterioro fiscal provincial e implicaciones en el portafolio en Canadá

The Canadian provincial fiscal landscape is under siege. From Quebec's ballooning deficit to Alberta's surprising surplus, the story of 2024-2025 is one of stark divergence. But the real drama isn't just about numbers-it's about how U.S. tariffs are reshaping risk profiles and forcing investors to rethink their bond strategies. Let's break it down.

The Fiscal Divide: Who's Sinking and Who's Swimming?

According to a report, the consolidated provincial, territorial, and local governments (PTLGs) deficit hit $19.8 billion in 2024, up $8.5 billion from the prior year. Quebec led the pack with a $8.2 billion deficit, driven by soaring social benefits and subsidies. Ontario wasn't far behind, with a $7.8 billion deficit as its economy grappled with higher compensation costs. Meanwhile, Alberta defied the trend, posting a $7.1 billion surplus fueled by a 14.5% surge in oil and gas royalties.

This divergence isn't just a one-year anomaly. By 2025-26, the aggregate provincial deficit is projected to worsen to $44.9 billion, or 1.4% of GDP. The culprit? U.S. tariffs. Provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, which rely heavily on U.S. exports (90% and 40% of GDP, respectively), are bearing the brunt. Ontario, with 80% of its goods exports heading south, isn't faring much better.

Tariffs and Tears: The Credit Risk Tsunami

The U.S. trade war isn't just a headline-it's a fiscal stress test. Moody's has already revised Ontario's outlook from positive to stable, citing slower growth and rising debt burdens. Quebec, meanwhile, is teetering on the edge of a downgrade, with its manufacturing sector exposed to cross-border supply chain disruptions.

But here's the kicker: Alberta's strong financial position offers a buffer. Despite its energy sector's vulnerability, the province's surplus and low debt-to-GDP ratio (currently 22%) make it a relative safe haven. Contrast that with British Columbia, which posted a $6.3 billion deficit in 2024, and you see why investors need to differentiate.

Bond Yields and the New Risk Matrix

November 2025 bond market data reveals a fascinating split. Provincial bonds outperformed federal benchmarks, with spreads narrowing by 2 basis points. Alberta's 10-year bonds traded at a 3.05% yield, just below Canada's 3.44% benchmark. Ontario and Quebec, however, lagged-Ontario's spreads tightened but its AA- rating (S&P) remains under pressure, while Quebec's 9.04% yield reflects lingering doubts.

The key takeaway? Alberta and Saskatchewan (projected to post a $12.2 million surplus) are now "buy" candidates. Ontario and Quebec? "Hold" at best. British Columbia? A "sell" unless its fiscal policies shift dramatically.

Strategic Positioning: Where to Put Your Money

1. Overweight Alberta and Saskatchewan: These provinces have the fiscal discipline and resource-driven surpluses to weather trade shocks. Alberta's oil royalties are rebounding, and Saskatchewan's diversified agriculture exports offer resilience.
2. Underweight Ontario and Quebec: Their deficits are structural, not cyclical. Ontario's $14.6 billion projected deficit and Quebec's $11.4 billion hole will strain credit ratings unless spending is reined in.
3. Short-Term Hedges: For risk-takers, consider shorting BC's bonds. Its $10.9 billion deficit and exposure to U.S. manufacturing tariffs make it a high-risk play.
4. Monitor Trade Policy: The Bank of Canada's rate cuts and potential U.S. tariff rollbacks could flip the script. Stay nimble.

The Bottom Line

Canada's provinces are no longer a one-size-fits-all bond market. Tariffs have created a new hierarchy of risk, and investors who ignore it will pay the price. Alberta's surplus and Saskatchewan's fiscal prudence are your new best friends. Ontario and Quebec? They'll need a miracle-and a budget overhaul-to avoid a downgrade.

As the old Wall Street adage goes: "Buy the rumor, sell the news." Right now, the rumor is that Alberta's fiscal health is a gold standard. The news? It might just be true.