NEAR Protocol/Yen Market Overview

• NEARJPY surged to 461.5 Yen on strong volume, reversing from a morning consolidation.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions as RSI hit 70+ in late trading.
• Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility, with price near the upper band at the close.
• On-balance volume spikes confirm the bullish breakout after 14:00 ET.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at ~449 Yen appears to have been rejected earlier.

NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) opened at 446.5 Yen on October 5 at 12:00 ET and closed at 459.9 Yen 24 hours later. The pair reached a high of 461.5 Yen and a low of 436.3 Yen, with a total traded volume of 24,393.2 units and a notional turnover of 10,620,620.2 Yen. The 24-hour move was characterized by a consolidation phase early, followed by a sharp breakout in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

NEARJPY showed key support at the 436.7–438.6 Yen range, which held on multiple occasions before the afternoon rally. Resistance emerged strongly at 448.5–450.5 Yen, with a bullish breakout confirmed by a 15-minute engulfing pattern at 14:15 ET. A long upper wick on the candle at 14:45 ET signaled rejection at higher levels, followed by a strong closing candle at 16:00 ET forming a bullish continuation pattern.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, NEARJPY closed above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, suggesting a short-term bullish bias. Longer-term, the 50-period daily SMA sits at ~440 Yen, indicating the recent rally could still face retesting. The 200-period SMA at ~428 Yen suggests a broader uptrend remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive in the afternoon and showed a sharp crossover above the zero line, reinforcing the bullish momentum. RSI reached 72 by late afternoon, signaling overbought conditions. However, the strong volume confirmation and bullish candlestick action suggest exhaustion is less likely than a continuation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the upper Bollinger Band widened to 463 Yen by close. NEARJPY closed near the upper band at 459.9 Yen, a sign of strong momentum. A pullback into the middle band (~451 Yen) may offer a high-probability entry for continuation traders.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after 14:00 ET, with the largest 15-minute candle at 14:15 ET showing 2,188.9 units traded. Notional turnover reached 10.6 million Yen during the rally. The price-volume alignment suggests strong buyer participation. Divergence was not observed during the move, indicating price and volume are aligned.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at ~449 Yen acted as a strong support earlier in the day. A 38.2% retracement at ~455 Yen is a likely next target. If the current wave extends beyond 461.5 Yen, a 127% extension at ~469 Yen becomes relevant for further upside.

NEARJPY appears poised for a continuation of its bullish momentum in the next 24 hours, provided the 451 Yen level remains above. A break below 446.5 Yen could trigger a short-term pullback toward the 440–438.6 Yen zone. Traders should monitor volume levels to confirm any reversal attempts and watch for overbought divergence on RSI.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for NEARJPY involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a volume spike above the 10-period average. Stops are placed below the prior swing low, and take-profit targets are set at 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. This setup, applied to the 15-minute chart, could capture short-term momentum swings while managing risk through defined stop levels and trailing exits during strong trends.