NEAR Protocol/Yen Market Overview

• NEARJPY surged 22% in 24 hours, hitting 456.6 Yen before consolidating near 445.9 Yen.
• High-volume breakout above 450.0 Yen confirmed bullish momentum with RSI near overbought.
• Bollinger Band expansion suggests heightened volatility, with price testing the upper band.
• Notable bearish divergence in volume during the final 6 hours of the session.
• Key Fibonacci levels at 448.9 and 456.0 Yen acted as strong support and resistance, respectively.

The NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) pair opened at 428.9 Yen on 2025-09-22 at 16:00 ET and surged to a high of 462.1 Yen, closing at 445.9 Yen as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 59,586.7 units and a notional turnover of 25,697,997.6 Yen. The price action displayed strong upward momentum, with a breakout above the 450.0 Yen level confirmed by high-volume action.

Structure & Formations

NEARJPY exhibited a textbook bullish breakout above the 450.0 Yen psychological level, marked by a large-volume candle (amount 34) that closed at 459.7 Yen. This candle was followed by a bearish consolidation phase marked by a long upper shadow and a close near the low, suggesting profit-taking. Key support levels formed at 448.9 Yen and 445.6 Yen, with the latter acting as a temporary floor during a sharp pullback. A doji candle formed at 447.5 Yen (time 13:45), indicating indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into a bullish alignment during the early hours of the 24-hour window. The price remained above both moving averages for most of the session, reinforcing the uptrend. On the daily chart, NEARJPY closed above the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA is currently at 447.0 Yen, acting as a dynamic support.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD histogram remained positive throughout the session, with a sharp increase in momentum during the 7:30–8:15 ET window, confirming the breakout. The RSI reached 70 during the peak of the move, signaling overbought conditions, but remained elevated for an extended period without a significant pullback. A bearish divergence in the RSI and price occurred in the final 6 hours, as the price fell while RSI held steady—raising caution about overbought exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the breakout phase, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow range of 2.3 Yen to over 5.0 Yen. NEARJPY closed near the lower band of the expanded range, indicating a potential pullback may be in progress. The upper band acted as resistance during the consolidation phase, with the price failing to retest the high of 462.1 Yen.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 3,000 units during the 6:30–7:30 ET window, coinciding with the price surge to 462.1 Yen. This high-volume breakout was confirmed by the price holding above 450.0 Yen for several hours. However, volume declined sharply during the final 4 hours of the session, suggesting weakening demand. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with a peak of 4,558,924 Yen and a drop to under 200,000 Yen in the last candle.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci retracement level at 61.8% (448.9 Yen) provided strong support during the pullback. The 38.2% level at 456.0 Yen acted as a resistance during the consolidation phase. The move from 425.4 Yen (low) to 462.1 Yen (high) formed a clear bullish swing, with NEARJPY currently testing the 445.6–448.9 Yen range. A break below 445.6 Yen could signal a deeper correction toward 440.0 Yen, the 23.6% level of that swing.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when the 15-minute MACD crosses above zero, confirmed by a close above the 20-period moving average and a volume spike exceeding 3,000 units. Exit the trade when RSI exceeds 70 for more than 3 consecutive candles or when price drops below the 20-period MA. This strategy would aim to capture short-term momentum breaks, with NEARJPY’s recent behavior indicating potential efficacy. Given the current overbought RSI and bearish divergence, the strategy may also include a trailing stop at 445.6 Yen to protect gains.