NEAR Protocol: A Confluence of Technical Bullishness and Sentiment-Driven Momentum in 2025

NEAR Protocol (NEAR) has emerged as a standout performer in 2025, driven by a unique convergence of technical strength and institutional-grade sentiment. As of September 2025, NEAR trades at $2.92, up 1.5% following a major network upgrade report, with technical indicators and market fundamentals aligning to suggest a high-probability continuation of its bullish trajectory.

Technical Bullishness: RSI, MACD, and Structural Momentum

NEAR's recent price action reveals a textbook case of bullish divergence, a critical signal for trend reversals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 56.15, as noted in that report, indicating neutral-to-bullish momentum without overbought conditions. This is supported by the MACD, which shows the line at 0.1286 above the signal line (0.1025), signaling growing upward momentum.

An internal backtest of NEAR Protocol's MACD Golden Cross strategy (2022–2025) found 44 such signals, with a 44.2% win rate over 30 trading days and an average return of +2.9%, outperforming the benchmark buy-and-hold return of +1.6%. While the excess return is not statistically significant, the results suggest a modest edge in favor of the strategy. Performance peaks in the first two weeks (+2.5%) before flattening, indicating shorter holding periods may capture more of the signal's potential.

A key technical catalyst was the bullish engulfing pattern observed in late August 2025, according to an expert analysis, which emerged after a period of consolidation. This pattern, combined with NEAR trading above its 50-day ($2.66) and 200-day ($2.55) simple moving averages as highlighted in the earlier report, reinforces the likelihood of a sustained rally toward $3.34 resistance. Analysts project a long-term target of $5.75 if the bullish trend persists, according to a price analysis and outlook, with a critical breakout above $3.50 expected to validate the broader uptrend.

The September 23 network upgrade, which enhanced Nightshade sharding and scalability, has further solidified NEAR's technical foundation, as the initial report described. This upgrade, coupled with institutional-grade infrastructure-evidenced by Bitwise's NEAR Staking ETP reported by blockchain.news-has attracted capital inflows, pushing the token above key psychological levels.

Sentiment-Driven Catalysts: Institutions, AI, and Ecosystem Growth

Beyond technicals, NEAR's rally is fueled by sentiment-driven tailwinds. Institutional adoption has accelerated, with Grayscale allocating 28.41% of its Decentralized AI Fund to NEAR, and Bitwise's ETP launch on Deutsche Börse Xetra triggering a 7.6% price surge, as reported by blockchain.news. These moves reflect confidence in NEAR's role as the "Blockchain for AI," a narrative bolstered by partnerships with projects like Allora Network and IQ AI, noted in market commentary.

Ecosystem growth is another critical driver. NEAR hit 46 million monthly active users in July 2025, cementing its position as the second-most-used Layer 1 blockchain, and the protocol's ambition to achieve 1 million transactions per second (TPS) aligns with AI's insatiable demand for scalable infrastructure-creating a flywheel effect for adoption.

Social media sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive, with 62% of mentions classified as bullish per the earlier expert analysis. The Fear & Greed Index at 58-also highlighted in that analysis-is a moderate level of greed, suggesting market participants are cautiously optimistic, avoiding the extremes that often precede corrections.

Investment Opportunities and Risk Considerations

For traders, NEAR presents a compelling case for both short- and long-term strategies. Short-term traders should monitor the $3.50 resistance level and the $1.80 support zone identified in market reports, with a breakout above $3.50 likely to trigger a retest of $3.20–$3.50. A failure to hold $1.80, however, could lead to a retest of $1.00.

Long-term investors are advised to accumulate on dips, particularly if prices approach the $2.02–$1.90 range noted by analysts. Analysts project NEAR could reach $38–$40 by year-end under strong AI adoption, per a traders' price prediction, with longer-term forecasts extending to $18.71 by 2031 according to a price forecast.

Risks remain, however. Macroeconomic volatility and regulatory uncertainty could dampen momentum. Additionally, NEAR's ambitious scalability targets require execution, and over-reliance on institutional adoption introduces concentration risk, as noted in the institutional analysis.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Play in the AI Era

NEAR Protocol's confluence of technical strength and sentiment-driven momentum positions it as a high-conviction investment in 2025. With institutional backing, AI integration, and a robust technical setup, the token is well-positioned to capitalize on the next phase of blockchain adoption. Investors should balance optimism with caution, using key levels and macro signals to manage risk while riding the wave of innovation.