Projected Air Travel Growth Threatens Climate Goals, Study Warns

The aviation industry is facing a significant challenge as projected air travel growth threatens to undermine its climate goals, according to a recent study by climate advocacy group Transport and Environment. As the industry prepares for the annual finance conference in Dublin, the report highlights the need for policy interventions to limit the sector's growth and promote more sustainable practices.

The study projects that the number of air passengers will more than double by 2050, leading to a surge in fuel demand and increased emissions. Despite the industry's commitment to using more sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), the limited supply and high prices of SAF mean that little of the greener fuel is currently in use. As a result, fuel use by the industry is forecast to rise by 59% by 2050 from 2019 levels, with plane manufacturers Airbus and Boeing both projecting high growth in the coming years.



The report suggests that steps to tame fast-growing air travel could include limiting airport infrastructure growth and corporate travel while increasing taxation on the sector. However, the airline industry has repeatedly pushed back on calls to curtail growth, arguing that the sector is essential to economic development and global connectivity.

Government policy has an instrumental role in the deployment of SAF, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). IATA encourages policies that are harmonized across countries and industries, while being technology and feedstock agnostic. Incentives should be used to accelerate SAF deployment, and mandates should only be used if they are part of a broader strategy to increase the production of SAF and complemented with incentive programs that facilitate innovation, scale-up, and unit cost reduction.



The aviation industry can employ several strategies to reduce its emissions while accommodating growth. These strategies can be categorized into the Avoid-Shift-Improve (A-S-I) framework, which includes "Technology", "Regulation", "Information", and "Economy" instruments. Some of the most effective strategies include demand management, carbon pricing, modal shift, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), technological improvements, and operational efficiency.

In conclusion, the projected air travel growth poses a significant threat to the aviation industry's climate goals. To address this challenge, the industry must work with governments to implement policies that promote more sustainable practices and limit the sector's growth. By employing a combination of strategies, the aviation industry can reduce its emissions while accommodating growth and contributing to the fight against climate change.