Are We at the Precipice of a New Crypto Bear Market?

The crypto market in late 2025 is teetering on a knife's edge. Bitcoin and Ethereum, the sector's twin pillars, are exhibiting a convergence of technical and on-chain bear signals that echo the early 2022 bear market. Yet, Ethereum's mixed metrics suggest a more nuanced narrative. This analysis unpacks the data, asking: Are we at the precipice of a new crypto bear market?

Bitcoin: A Bear Market Blueprint Unfolding

Bitcoin's on-chain metrics paint a stark picture. According to a report by Coindesk, over 25% of BTC's supply is currently underwater, a figure that mirrors the 2022 bear market's onset. Glassnode's analysis further underscores this, highlighting elevated top buyer stress and a 7.1 million BTC supply in loss on a 7-day SMA-aligning with the 5–7 million range observed in 2022.

Derivatives activity compounds the bearish sentiment. Open interest has plummeted, and options traders are offloading upside positions, signaling risk aversion. Meanwhile, ETF outflows and weakening spot volumes reflect a collapse in demand. These indicators collectively suggest a fragile market structure, with Bitcoin's price potentially mirroring the 2022 selloff if macroeconomic catalysts like the FOMC meeting fail to stabilize sentiment.

Ethereum: A Bearish Price, A Bullish On-Chain Narrative

Ethereum's price action is undeniably bearish, having dipped below $3,000 in November 2025. However, on-chain metrics tell a different story. Data from BraveNewCoin reveals that 59.12% of ETH's supply remains in profit, a figure historically associated with mid-to-late bull cycles. Its Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of 24.99% is also far below the 136%–520% range seen at macro tops, suggesting the asset is still in a late-cycle rally.

Further, Ethereum's supply held on centralized exchanges has dropped to 8.7%–8.9%, indicating accumulation by long-term holders and institutions. Technical indicators like the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) are stabilizing, with selling pressure easing as the metric breaks above its downward trend. Analysts note a multi-year accumulation zone forming around $3,100, with key resistances at $3,419 and $3,609 acting as potential catalysts for a rebound.

Yet, the risks remain. If Ethereum fails to hold above $3,028, it could confirm bearish expectations and trigger a slide toward $2,800.

Convergence and Macro Uncertainty

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum face a common challenge: macroeconomic uncertainty. The U.S. government shutdown and rising global growth anxieties have exacerbated short-term volatility. However, Ethereum's unique positioning-as neither digital gold nor a speculative startup-has shielded it from full bear market capitulation.

Investors are increasingly pivoting to privacy coins and ZK-based protocols as countercyclical plays, signaling a shift in risk appetite. This trend underscores a broader market reallocation, where Ethereum's role as a "middle child" in crypto's ecosystem becomes both a strength and a vulnerability.

Conclusion: A Bear Market in the Making?

The data is clear: Bitcoin's bear signals are textbook, while Ethereum's metrics are a patchwork of resilience and fragility. If Bitcoin's 2022 playbook repeats, Ethereum's price could follow suit. However, its on-chain health and accumulation patterns suggest a potential rebound if macro conditions stabilize.

For now, the market is in a holding pattern. Investors must watch Bitcoin's $60k and Ethereum's $3,100 levels closely. As the FOMC meeting looms, the next few weeks will determine whether this is the start of a new bear market-or a temporary correction in a broader bull cycle.