Metales preciosos en un entorno macro que se deteriora: el aumento de la demanda de refugio seguro y los cambios en la política del banco central

The global macroeconomic landscape in 2025 has been marked by a confluence of inflationary pressures, geopolitical volatility, and central bank policy pivots. Against this backdrop, precious metals-particularly gold and silver-have emerged as critical assets for investors and policymakers alike. Their performance reflects a broader shift in risk perception and monetary strategy, driven by both institutional and retail demand. This analysis examines how deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and evolving central bank policies have fueled a surge in safe-haven demand for precious metals, with implications for their role in portfolios and global financial systems.

Central Bank Policy Shifts and the Gold Rush

Central banks have played a pivotal role in reshaping the gold market over the past two years.
Emerging-market economies, including China, Russia, and Turkey have aggressively accumulated gold to diversify foreign reserves and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. By the end of 2025, ,
a figure sustained by geopolitical tensions and sanctions regimes that have eroded confidence in fiat currencies. This trend is not merely reactive:
the reclassification of gold as a Tier 1 reserve asset under Basel III regulations has incentivized financial institutions to increase gold holdings, further solidifying its status as a cornerstone of institutional portfolios.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's policy shifts have also indirectly bolstered gold demand. As the Fed unwound liquidity support measures and the collapsed,
global liquidity stress intensified, prompting investors to seek assets with . Meanwhile, expectations of interest rate cuts in 2026, coupled with a weakening dollar, have amplified gold's appeal.
By October 2025, per ounce, with J.P. .

Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical Uncertainty and ETF Inflows

has reinforced gold's role as a safe-haven asset.
The war in Ukraine, U.S.-China trade disputes, and broader global uncertainty have driven investors to preserve capital amid inflation and systemic risks. This demand has been amplified by record inflows into gold ETFs.
In Q3 2025 alone, investor and central bank demand , far exceeding historical averages. Retail demand in markets like China has also rebounded,
with domestic price premiums surging as consumers seek tangible assets.

Silver, while less prominent than gold, has similarly benefited from a "debasement trade." Its price soared to over $54 per ounce in October 2025, driven by industrial demand in and semiconductors, as well as its role as a hedge against .
Unlike gold, silver's price dynamics are influenced by both speculative and industrial factors, creating a liquidity-driven squeeze in the .
According to Bloomberg analysis, gold's price record and U.S. rate-cut bets are fueling the rally.

The Outlook: Structural Shifts and Persistent Risks

The in the gold market-such as its reclassification under Basel III and the dollar's declining dominance-suggest that elevated prices may persist into 2026. Central banks are expected to maintain robust gold purchases,
albeit at slightly lower levels than the 2024 peak of over 1,000 tonnes. However, uncertainties remain. A potential reversal in monetary policy, a stabilization of the U.S. dollar, or a resolution of could temper demand. Conversely, further economic deterioration or a deepening could push gold and silver to record highs.

For investors, the key takeaway is clear: in an environment of and policy experimentation, precious metals are no longer peripheral assets. They are central to hedging against and capital preservation. As central banks and private investors alike recalibrate their strategies, gold and silver stand to benefit from both structural and .