Metales preciosos en una encrucijada: reducciones de tasas, restricciones de oferta y elección ante la decisión de la Fed

The global investment landscape for gold and silver has reached a pivotal juncture, shaped by diverging macroeconomic signals, tightening supply chains, and shifting investor sentiment. As the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to deliver its third consecutive rate cut in December 2025, the interplay between monetary policy, industrial demand, and speculative positioning is creating a complex environment for precious metals. This analysis explores how strategic positioning in gold and silver must account for both the Fed's cautious easing and the structural supply challenges that are driving prices to record highs.

Fed Policy Divergence and the Opportunity Cost of Precious Metals

The Federal Reserve's December 2025 rate cut, reducing the benchmark rate to 3.50%-3.75%, reflects a delicate balancing act between supporting a weakening labor market and guarding against persistent inflation. While the cut signals a shift toward accommodative policy, the FOMC remains deeply divided. A faction of officials has warned that further easing could undermine inflation control, leading to a "hawkish cut" that raises the bar for future rate reductions. This ambiguity complicates the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver.

Market expectations for two additional quarter-point cuts by the end of 2026 are already priced in, but the Fed's updated communication may temper these hopes. With critical inflation and unemployment data delayed due to a government shutdown, the central bank's decision lacks the usual data-driven clarity. Meanwhile, the looming nomination of a new Fed Chair by President Donald Trump adds another layer of uncertainty, as Trump has consistently advocated for more aggressive monetary easing. Investors must weigh these conflicting signals when assessing the long-term appeal of precious metals.

Supply Constraints and Industrial Demand: A Perfect Storm for Silver

Silver has emerged as a standout performer in 2025, surging past $60 per ounce for the first time in history. This rally is driven by a confluence of factors: declining mine output, record industrial demand, and speculative inflows. Mine supply has struggled to keep pace with demand, particularly in sectors like solar photovoltaics and electric vehicles, where silver's conductivity and durability are indispensable. Solar PV demand alone has grown from 5.6% of total silver consumption in 2015 to 17% in 2024.

Structural supply deficits have persisted for seven years, totaling nearly 800 million ounces since 2019. This deficit is exacerbated by investment demand, with silver-backed ETPs attracting over 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025. The result is a tightening of global balances that supports further price appreciation. Analysts at RBC and UBS project silver to rebound to $55–$75 per ounce by mid-2026, citing both industrial resilience and speculative momentum.

Gold, meanwhile, has also reached record highs, surpassing $4,000 per ounce in October 2025. Central banks have accelerated gold purchases to diversify foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar. J.P. Morgan forecasts an average price of $3,675 per ounce for 2025, with a potential rise toward $4,600 by mid-2026. The gold-to-silver ratio, currently at 70–72, suggests silver remains undervalued relative to gold, a dynamic that could drive further convergence.

Investor Positioning: Balancing Bullish Fundamentals and Overbought Concerns

Investor positioning in both metals has been shaped by expectations of Fed easing. Gold and silver have gained roughly 60% and 110%, respectively, in 2025. ETF inflows have been a key driver, with gold-backed ETPs and silver ETPs attracting billions in assets. However, concerns about overbought conditions have emerged. If the Fed's dovish momentum wanes or inflation surprises to the upside, both metals could face corrections. For instance, gold could dip below $4,000 an ounce if rate cuts stall.