Pre-Market Chaos Exposes $4.5B XPL Valuation Bubble

Justin Sun, the founder of Tron and current CEO of the Bitfinex exchange, has been accused of manipulating the price of Plasma's XPL token on the Hyperliquid derivatives platform, leading to an estimated $4.6 million loss for a single trader. The controversy erupted as the token, which had yet to officially launch, surged in value on pre-market trading platforms, with some observers claiming the rapid price appreciation was driven by manipulative activity involving high leverage and concentrated market control [1].

The XPL token began pre-market trading on Hyperliquid on August 22, 2025, with quotes opening near $0.45 and briefly reaching as high as $0.53. By the end of the day, the price had stabilized between $0.40 and $0.45, implying a fully diluted valuation of between $4.5 billion and $5.1 billion—approximately ten times the price at which the token was sold during Plasma’s public offering in July. During the first few hours of trading, Hyperliquid reported a volume of $60 million to $100 million, while perpetual futures funding rates hit as high as 1,200 percent annualised, as traders competed to hold long positions [1].

The volatility and liquidity observed during the XPL pre-market trading period underscore the growing influence of derivatives platforms in determining token prices prior to formal listings. Plasma’s token sale in July raised $373 million in just 10 days, selling 10% of the total 1 billion token supply at $0.05 per XPL, for a fully diluted valuation of $500 million. However, the pre-market trading price of $0.45 implies a valuation of $4.5 billion, raising questions about the accuracy of market signals and the potential for manipulation, particularly given that the circulating supply remains zero [2].

Hyperliquid, one of the leading venues for XPL pre-market trading, listed an XPL-USD "hyperps" contract allowing traders to take up to 3x leveraged positions. The exchange claims its approach minimizes manipulation risks by using a moving average of the contract’s own mark price for funding, rather than relying on an external oracle. Despite this, critics argue that the absence of a circulating supply combined with high leverage and concentrated order flow creates an environment ripe for price manipulation, especially when a single participant holds significant influence [2].

Analysts have noted that the incident highlights the systemic risks inherent in pre-listing markets, where liquidity is concentrated and governance is often opaque. DeFi analyst Ignas observed on X that the XPL token was trading near 10x its initial public-sale valuation, with long positions paying annualised funding rates of 1,200 percent. Hyperliquid data also showed $49 million in trading volume and $33 million in open interest shortly after the contract's launch. These conditions, while volatile, are not uncommon in pre-listing markets, which are often characterized by speculative fervor and rapid price swings [2].

As the Plasma project moves forward, the accusations against Justin Sun and the broader debate over the integrity of pre-market trading will likely continue to attract scrutiny. Plasma is a stablecoin-focused Layer 1 project backed by Bitfinex, designed to offer fee-free USDT transfers. While the project has received substantial backing, the recent price manipulation allegations could cast a shadow over its long-term prospects and regulatory viability [2].

Source: [1] Plasma's XPL Token Hits $5 Billion Valuation in Pre-Market Debut (https://thedefiant.io/news/markets/plasmas-xpl-token-hits-5-billion-valuation-pre-market-debut-7ce93ed6) [2] Plasma’s XPL Token Trades Above $4.5 Billion Fully Diluted Valuation in Pre-Markets (https://www.theblock.co/post/367929/plasmas-xpl-token-trades-above-4-5-billion-fully-diluted-valuation-in-pre-markets)