Post-Pandemic U.S. Road Travel Recovery: A Strategic Lens on VMT Trends and Sectoral Implications

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) has long served as a barometer of economic health and consumer behavior. Post-pandemic, the U.S. VMT rebound to 3.19 trillion miles in 2023—nearly matching 2019 levels—signals a nuanced recovery in mobility patterns, with far-reaching implications for infrastructure and energy sectors [1]. This article examines how VMT trends, shaped by macroeconomic dynamics and policy interventions, are reshaping investment landscapes.

VMT as a Leading Indicator of Macroeconomic Strength

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) projects total VMT to grow at 0.5% annually through 2050, lagging behind the 1.7% average U.S. GDP growth forecast [2]. This divergence reflects structural shifts: light-duty VMT, the largest component of travel demand, is expected to rise at 0.4% per year, while truck VMT (combination and single-unit) will grow faster (1.1% and 1.9%, respectively) due to e-commerce and supply chain demands [3]. These trends underscore a decoupling of VMT from traditional GDP correlations, driven by factors like remote work adoption and modal shifts (e.g., biking, public transit) [4].

The post-pandemic rebound also reveals behavioral shifts. Work-related trips declined, while nonwork trips (shopping, school drop-offs) surged during peak hours, straining infrastructure [5]. Traffic congestion, costing the average driver 43 hours in 2024, exacerbates operating costs, with deteriorated roads adding $1,400 annually per vehicle [6]. These pressures highlight the need for infrastructure modernization, even as VMT growth moderates.

Infrastructure Investment: Bridging the Funding Gap

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) has allocated $591 billion since 2021, yet a $684 billion shortfall remains for roadways over the next decade [7]. State and local governments now fund 79% of infrastructure spending, with operations and maintenance accounting for 56.7% of expenditures [8]. This shift reflects the aging infrastructure backlog and the prioritization of upkeep over new projects.

Meanwhile, state-level policies are targeting VMT to meet climate goals. California’s 20% VMT reduction target by 2030 contrasts with more moderate goals in Washington and Colorado [9]. Critics argue such policies risk overlooking the economic benefits of VMT, particularly in a post-pandemic era where travel patterns remain fluid [10].

Energy Sector Dynamics: Fuel vs. Electric Vehicles

The energy sector faces a dual trajectory. While EV adoption is rising—EVs accounted for 6.7% of new vehicle sales in 2022—traditional fuel-based transportation still dominates [11]. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has spurred clean energy manufacturing, with quarterly investments tripling to $14 billion in Q1 2025, focusing on EV supply chains [12]. Public EV charging infrastructure expanded by 6.5% in Q2 2024, with DC fast chargers growing at 7.4% [13].

However, EV growth strains road funding models. Motor fuel tax (MFT) revenues are declining as fuel efficiency improves and EVs proliferate. Between 2019 and 2022, plug-in vehicle market share tripled to 6.7%, exacerbating the funding shortfall [14]. While EVs lack a "rebound effect" (unlike fuel-efficient vehicles, which induce more driving), their long-term impact on emissions remains limited due to the slow turnover of vehicle fleets [15].

Strategic Implications for Investors

For infrastructure investors, the key lies in aligning with state and local funding priorities, particularly in operations and maintenance. The IIJA’s $273.2 billion highway formula funding over five years offers opportunities in road resurfacing, bridge repairs, and smart mobility projects [16]. Energy investors should focus on EV supply chains and charging infrastructure, where IRA tax credits and private-sector partnerships are driving growth [17].

The energy transition also demands innovation in road funding. A shift from gas taxes to VMT-based fees could address declining revenues while incentivizing efficient travel. However, such reforms must account for equity concerns and the unique challenges posed by EVs [18].

Conclusion

Post-pandemic VMT trends reveal a complex interplay of economic resilience, behavioral shifts, and policy interventions. As infrastructure and energy sectors adapt to this new normal, investors must balance short-term recovery needs with long-term sustainability goals. The data underscores a critical truth: VMT is not just a metric—it is a lens through which to view the evolving American economy.

Source:
[1] ASCE. (2025). US Roads Infrastructure. https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat/item/roads-infrastructure
[2] FHWA. (2024). 2024 FHWA Forecasts of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/tables/vmt/vmt_forecast_sum.cfm
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[7] ASCE. (2025). US Roads Infrastructure. https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat/item/roads-infrastructure
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[13] AFDC. (2024). Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Trends. https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity-infrastructure-trends
[14] Chicago Fed. (2023). Electric Vehicles, Motor Fuel Taxes, and Road Funding. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2023/2
[15] RFF. (2025). Progress and Potential for Electric Vehicles to Reduce Emissions. https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/potential-role-and-impact-evs-us-decarbonization-strategies/
[16] ASCE. (2025). US Roads Infrastructure. https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat/item/roads-infrastructure
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[18] University of Chicago. (2025). The Distributional Impacts of a VMT-Gas Tax Swap. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/722672