La manifestación después de las Navidades: un caso estratégico de posicionamiento en IA y sectores cíclicos

The Santa Claus Rally, a historical phenomenon where stock markets often surge in the final days of December and the first days of January, has long captivated investors. This year, as we approach the end of 2025, the interplay of seasonal momentum and macroeconomic catalysts presents a compelling case for positioning in AI and cyclical sectors.

Seasonal Momentum: A Historical Foundation

Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.4% return in December, with 73.3% of years finishing higher, making it the most reliable month for gains on Wall Street according to analysis. The Nasdaq 100, while less consistent (57.7% win rate), has delivered an average December gain of 1.7%, outperforming its annual average according to market data. Cyclical sectors, particularly Materials and Consumer Discretionary, have shown robust seasonal strength. For instance, Materials posted an average positive return of 4.6% in December, albeit with a 57.7% win rate, while Consumer Discretionary has averaged 0.8% gains with a 68% success rate according to Investopedia.

The AI sector, though newer to the spotlight, has emerged as a key driver. In 2025, semiconductor and hyperscale cloud providers like NVIDIA and Micron Technology saw substantial gains, reflecting the sector's growing influence according to market minute. However, recent years have seen volatility, with the Santa Claus Rally failing in 2023 and 2024 due to factors like the Fed's tightening cycle and algorithmic market dynamics according to analysis.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Fed Policy, Inflation, and GDP

The 2025 Santa Claus Rally was underpinned by a pivotal December rate cut, which lowered the Fed's target range to 3.50%-3.75%, easing borrowing costs and boosting market sentiment according to financial analysis. This dovish shift, combined with a strong Q3 2025 GDP reading of 4.3% (well above the 3.3% consensus), fueled optimism for a broad-based rally according to market reports. While inflation rebounded to 3% in early 2025, the Fed's accommodative stance and expectations of further cuts in 2026 have tempered concerns according to wealth management insights.

Cyclical sectors, particularly Financials, Materials, and Industrials, have benefited from this environment. Financials outperformed as long-term yields rose and the yield curve eased, while Materials saw gains from AI-driven infrastructure demand and electrification trends according to Bloomberg. The Russell 2000, a barometer for small-cap cyclicals, outperformed major indices, with a 78% win rate in December rallies according to market data.

AI Sector Dynamics: Earnings and Capital Expenditures

NVIDIA's Q4 2025 results exemplify the AI sector's resilience. Despite a $4.5 billion charge from U.S. export licensing restrictions, the company reported $44.1 billion in revenue, a 12% quarterly increase and 69% year-over-year growth according to financial results. Its Data Center segment, a cornerstone of AI infrastructure, generated $39.1 billion in revenue, underscoring the sector's scale. Similarly, Micron Technology forecasted blowout earnings, driven by surging demand for memory chips in AI applications according to Reuters.

However, challenges persist. Overinvestment in AI infrastructure and unmet productivity gains have introduced volatility. For instance, disappointing earnings from Oracle and Broadcom in late 2025 dragged on peers like NVIDIA, highlighting valuation risks according to financial analysis.

Strategic Positioning for 2026

The confluence of seasonal momentum and macroeconomic tailwinds suggests a strategic case for overweighting AI and cyclical sectors. The Fed's projected 2026 rate cuts and a 1.9% GDP growth forecast according to Deloitte support cyclical outperformance, particularly in Financials and Materials. Meanwhile, AI's role in driving corporate profits-exemplified by NVIDIA's AI factories and partnerships-positions it as a long-term growth engine despite near-term volatility according to Reuters.

Investors should also consider the Santa Claus Rally's historical reliability. With the S&P 500 historically gaining in 75% of December-January periods according to Morningstar, and cyclical sectors aligning with improving GDP trends, the case for tactical exposure is strong.

Conclusion

The 2025 Santa Claus Rally, bolstered by Fed easing and AI-driven growth, offers a blueprint for 2026. While risks like inflationary pressures and valuation concerns linger, the macroeconomic and seasonal tailwinds favor cyclical and AI sectors. For investors seeking to capitalize on these dynamics, a balanced approach-leveraging both cyclical breadth and AI depth-could yield robust returns in the coming year.