Pool Outlook - A Bearish Technical Picture with Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Market Snapshot

Headline takeaway: Pool (POOL.O) faces a bearish technical outlook with weak momentum, while its recent price has risen slightly by 0.41%, contradicting the downbeat signals.

News Highlights

Recent news items are largely unrelated to the stock market. Notable stories include updates on JavaScript development, a new Yamaha motorcycle model, and discussions on GitHub and Microsoft Edge. These items have no direct impact on Pool's stock price or performance.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided. The simple average rating is 3.50, and the performance-weighted rating is 2.31, showing a mismatch in confidence between analysts. Two institutions are active: Baird (66.7% historical win rate) and Oppenheimer (33.3% win rate). The recent price trend (0.41% up) diverges from the bearish technical signals and the mixed analyst outlook.

Key Fundamental Factors

• ROE (Diluted): 19.07% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• ROE (Diluted) YoY Growth Rate: 16.46% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• Current Liabilities / Total Liabilities: 34.05% (internal diagnostic score: 0.00)
• ROA: 5.29% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• Net Profit Margin (NPM): 10.89% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• Rate of Return on Total Assets: -9.17% (internal diagnostic score: 0.00)

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money and retail investors are moving in sync, with all inflow ratios showing a positive trend. The overall inflow ratio is 51.62%, indicating broad participation across all investor segments. This positive flow contrasts with the bearish technical signals, suggesting some optimism about the stock despite the weak chart indicators.

Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators have turned sharply bearish. Over the last five days, bearish patterns such as the Bearish Engulfing and WR Overbought have appeared. Here's how our internal diagnostic scores break them down:

• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 1.00 – This pattern historically has returned -1.85% on average with a 31.03% win rate.
• WR Oversold: Internal diagnostic score: 3.96 – A neutral to slightly positive pattern, but not enough to offset the bearish bias.
• Bearish Engulfing: Internal diagnostic score: 1.00 – Historically returns -2.33% with a 12.5% win rate.
• MACD Golden Cross: Internal diagnostic score: 1.75 – This pattern has averaged a -0.16% return and a 38.46% win rate.
• Dividend Payable Date: Internal diagnostic score: 1.00 – This date is associated with a -1.26% average return and a 25.0% win rate.

Conclusion

Given the weak technical signals, mixed analyst opinions, and divergent price trend, investors are advised to consider waiting for a pull-back before engaging with Pool. While money flows are positive, the chart remains bearish, with five bearish indicators and no bullish ones. Monitor the upcoming weeks for a potential shift in momentum, especially after key earnings or strategic announcements.