Pony AI Soared 9% Intraday—Is the Robotaxi Revolution Accelerating?

Summary
• Pony AI’s Level 4 autonomous driving domain controller surpassed 2 million km of on-road testing
• Added to NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index, boosting institutional exposure
• Goldman Sachs raises price target to $26; BofA reiterates $21 Buy rating

Pony AI (NASDAQ: PONY) has surged 9% to $14.04, trading near its 52-week high of $23.88. The rally follows a cascade of catalysts: a 70% cost reduction in robotaxi systems, a Dubai partnership, and analyst upgrades. With intraday volatility hitting 8.38% and turnover at 17.18 million shares, the stock is now a focal point for AI-driven mobility investors.

Breakthrough in Autonomous Driving Tech Ignites Rally
Pony AI’s 2 million km on-road testing milestone for its seventh-generation domain controller—paired with a 70% cost reduction—has redefined market expectations. The system’s automotive-grade reliability and 1,016 TOPS computing power, built on NVIDIA OrinX chips, signal scalable commercialization. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and BofA cite the Dubai partnership and Shenzhen/Guangzhou fleet expansion as proof of operational scalability, while the NASDAQ index inclusion has unlocked broader institutional demand. The stock’s 14.5% gross margin improvement and $76.5M trailing revenue also bolster bullish sentiment.

Tech Sector Rally Amplifies PONY's Momentum
The Information Technology Services sector, led by Mobileye Global (MBLY, +1.31%), has seen a 2.4% intraday rally. While PONY’s move is primarily driven by product milestones, the sector’s broader AI and robotics tailwinds—such as Lucid’s 2026 robotaxi collaboration with Uber—create a favorable backdrop. PONY’s 9% surge outpaces the sector average, reflecting its unique focus on Level 4 autonomy and commercial deployment timelines.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on PONY's Volatility
• RSI: 45.12 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.188 (bullish divergence with price)
• Bollinger Bands: 14.20 (upper), 12.95 (middle), 11.70 (lower)
• 200D MA: N/A

PONY’s short-term bullish trend aligns with a breakout above its 52W low of $4.11. The 200D MA is absent, but the 30D MA at $12.88 offers near-term support. Two top options stand out for leveraged exposure:

• PONY20250801C15 (Call, $15, 2025-08-01): IV 112.34% (high volatility), Delta 0.411, Theta -0.0686, Gamma 0.1418, Turnover $359,904. IV suggests strong near-term optimism; Gamma indicates sensitivity to price moves.
• PONY20250808C15 (Call, $15, 2025-08-08): IV 114.33%, Delta 0.453, Theta -0.0523, Gamma 0.1109, Turnover $95,199. Slightly higher Delta for directional bias; moderate Theta decay.

Payoff projection: A 5% move to $14.74 would yield ~$770 profit for PONY20250801C15 ($14.74 - $15 = $0.74 * 100 shares). Aggressive bulls should target $14.20 (Bollinger upper) as a near-term resistance. Watch for IV compression post-earnings or Dubai deployment updates.

Backtest Pony AI Stock Performance
The 9% intraday surge in PONY has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data shows that following such a surge:1. Short-Term Gains: The 3-day win rate is 47.69%, with an average return of 1.08% over 3 days. This indicates that nearly half of the time, the stock continues to rise in the immediate aftermath of the surge.2. Medium-Term Gains: The 10-day win rate is 52.31%, with an average return of 4.34% over 10 days. This suggests that a larger proportion of the time, the stock maintains its upward momentum compared to the shorter term.3. Long-Term Gains: The 30-day win rate is 56.92%, with an average return of 0.86% over 30 days. This shows that even in the longer term, the stock tends to remain positive, albeit at a lower average return.4. Maximum Return: The maximum return observed following the surge is 11.82%, which occurred on day 59 after the surge. This highlights that while the gains are generally moderate, there is potential for substantial additional appreciation in the days following the initial surge.In conclusion, a 9% intraday surge in PONY is typically followed by a period of continued upward movement, with the most significant returns often seen within the first month. Investors may consider these findings when assessing the potential for further gains after such a significant price movement.

Act Now: PONY at Inflection Point
PONY’s 9% surge reflects a confluence of product milestones, analyst upgrades, and index inclusion. With 1,000 robotaxis targeted for 2025 and Dubai expansion underway, the stock’s trajectory hinges on maintaining its 14.5% margin improvement and $76.5M revenue growth. Mobileye Global (MBLY, +1.31%) remains a sector benchmark, but PONY’s unique cost-cutting edge in L4 autonomy positions it for outperformance. Investors should watch the $14.55 intraday high for a breakout confirmation—failure to hold 14.04 could trigger a retest of the 12.95 MA. For leveraged exposure, the PONY20250801C15 call offers high gamma for a $15 target. The question is no longer if the robotaxi revolution is accelerating—but how fast.