Polymarket Bets Show 60% Recession Odds After Trump Tariffs

In a significant shift, 60% of Polymarket bettors now predict a 2025 recession, marking a nine-point increase in just 24 hours. This surge in pessimism follows the dramatic unveiling of sweeping global tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on April 2, 2025. The tariff announcement has sent shockwaves through financial markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting nearly 3,700 points over two days.

The sudden shift in sentiment on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, reflects growing concerns about the economic impact of Trump's tariff policies. Just 24 hours prior, the percentage of bettors predicting a 2025 recession was nine points lower. When the poll was initially created in January, only 20% of participants anticipated a recession this year.

Trump's tariff policies, framed as a means to protect American workers and industries, have sparked fears of a self-inflicted economic slowdown. The president's rhetoric, which includes claims of decades of economic exploitation by other nations, has added to the uncertainty.

Despite the market turmoil, Bitcoin has shown resilience, climbing to over $84,000. This increase suggests that some investors may be turning to digital assets as a hedge against economic uncertainty. However, the long-term impact of the potential financial crisis on the digital asset industry remains unclear.

Critics of Trump's tariff policies argue that they will negatively impact global trade and consumers. The president, however, remains steadfast in his belief that these measures will strengthen American manufacturing and independence. As the tariffs are set to take effect imminently, the economic landscape continues to evolve, with prediction markets like Polymarket serving as barometers of investor sentiment.