La convergencia entre el entretenimiento político y su impacto en las acciones de los medios

The intersection of politics and media has never been more volatile. In 2025, the convergence of regulatory shifts, cultural controversies, and corporate maneuvering has created a high-stakes environment for media stocks. At the center of this drama is Donald Trump, whose hosting of the Kennedy Center Honors and ongoing media feuds have amplified tensions between traditional and digital platforms. For investors, the question is whether Paramount Skydance (PSKY) and Netflix (NFLX) are positioned to thrive-or be disrupted-by these dynamics.

Deregulation and the Reshaping of Media Power

The 2025 regulatory landscape, shaped by a Trump administration's Project 2025 blueprint, signals a dramatic shift toward deregulation. This agenda includes dismantling protections for public broadcasting, defunding non-commercial entities like PBS and NPR, and reducing FCC oversight to prioritize White House control. For traditional media, this could mean relaxed ownership rules, enabling consolidation and cross-platform strategies. However, the same blueprint calls for heightened scrutiny of tech giants over content moderation and perceived liberal bias.

This duality creates a bifurcated playing field. Traditional media companies, such as Paramount, may benefit from deregulation by streamlining operations and expanding through mergers. Digital platforms, meanwhile, face regulatory headwinds that could complicate their dominance. The Kennedy Center Honors, hosted by Trump in December 2025, exemplifies how political influence can directly shape media consumption and regulatory priorities.

The Kennedy Center Honors: A Case Study in Political Influence

The 2025 Kennedy Center Honors, hosted by Trump, drew the lowest-ever viewership at 3.01 million, a 25-35% drop from previous years. This collapse was attributed to Trump's controversial push to rename the institution, his edited remarks, and the event's scheduling on a Tuesday night. The backlash from the Kennedy family and arts communities underscored the risks of politicizing cultural institutions. Yet, the event's political symbolism was undeniable: Trump's reorganization of the Kennedy Center's board and his public promotion of the honors highlighted his ability to leverage media platforms for partisan agendas.

For media companies, the incident revealed a critical truth: political alignment can influence both public perception and regulatory outcomes. Paramount, with its close ties to Trump, has leveraged this dynamic in its $108.4 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). The bid, framed as a "lower-risk" alternative to Netflix's $82.7 billion offer, has been bolstered by Trump's public endorsement and the administration's skepticism of antitrust concerns.

Paramount's Strategic Gambit: Debt, Deregulation, and Political Capital

Paramount Skydance's Q2 2025 financials show a mixed picture. While its Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) segment reported a positive adjusted OIBDA of $48 million and Paramount+ grew to 77.7 million subscribers, the company's debt load remains a concern at $11.77 billion. The proposed WBD acquisition would push this to $87 billion, a risk that could be mitigated by the Trump administration's regulatory favor.

Paramount's all-cash bid is designed to expedite approval, avoiding the complex regulatory hurdles faced by Netflix. The company's political capital-evidenced by Trump's public praise and the Writers Guild of America's opposition to Netflix's bid-positions it as a frontrunner in the WBD race. If successful, the merger would create a media behemoth with combined streaming and studio assets, potentially reshaping the industry's competitive landscape.

Netflix's Dilemma: Innovation vs. Regulatory Resistance

Netflix's Q3 2025 revenue of $11.5 billion and a 17.2% year-over-year growth underscore its financial strength. Its content strategy, including a $18 billion annual budget and expansion into anime and ad-supported tiers, has driven engagement to 190 million monthly active viewers. However, its $82.7 billion WBD bid faces significant challenges. The inclusion of a stock collar mechanism and a mandatory spin-off of WBD's Global Networks division introduces execution risk, while antitrust concerns and Trump's opposition complicate regulatory approval.

The company's decision to stop reporting quarterly subscriber numbers-a move aimed at focusing on profitability-has also introduced uncertainty for investors. While Netflix's vertical integration strategy could consolidate its dominance, the political-media convergence may hinder its ability to secure favorable regulatory treatment.

The Investment Outlook: Navigating a Polarized Landscape

For investors, the key differentiator between PSKY and NFLX lies in their alignment with the new political-media ecosystem. Paramount's deregulation-friendly strategy and political connections position it to capitalize on a Trump-era agenda that prioritizes traditional media consolidation. However, its massive debt load and reliance on regulatory approval introduce execution risks.

Netflix, despite its financial strength and content prowess, faces headwinds from regulatory skepticism and a fragmented media landscape. Its bid for WBD, while ambitious, may struggle to gain traction in an environment where political influence often outweighs market logic.

The coming months will test both companies' resilience. As the FCC prioritizes national security and antitrust enforcement, and as media consumption continues to fragment across platforms, the ability to adapt to a politicized regulatory framework will be paramount. For now, Paramount's political capital and Netflix's content innovation represent two distinct paths through a rapidly evolving media landscape.