El crecimiento del volumen de ventas de Polestar para el año 2025: ¿Se trata de una estrategia para aumentar la cuota de mercado, o simplemente de una trampa basada en el volumen de ventas?

Polestar's 2025 sales figures tell a clear story of scaling against the odds. The company sold an estimated 60,119 cars last year, a 34% growth from 2024. That pace accelerated in the final quarter, where retail sales hit 15,608 vehicles, up 27% year-over-year. For a growth investor, these numbers are the headline act, but the real test is the market context.

This expansion happened in a flat European new car market, where year-to-date registrations increased by just 1.4% through November. More telling is the contrast with the dominant EV player. While Polestar grew, Tesla's European sales plunged 28% last year. In a market where the entire industry is stagnant and a key rival is in retreat, Polestar's volume gains are a direct capture of market share. The company's CEO noted they are outselling many established car brands across key European markets, a powerful validation of their product and network.

The strategic pivot to Europe is now the engine of this growth. The region now accounts for around 78% of sales, a shift driven by weakening demand and policy headwinds in the U.S. This focus required a fundamental change in sales execution. Polestar has scaled back its emphasis on online, direct-to-consumer sales in favor of a traditional dealer-led model, expanding its sales network by over 50% last year. This move to a more scalable, volume-focused distribution channel is critical for sustaining high growth rates as the company looks to further penetrate the European market.

The Scalability Test: Market Penetration and Model Line-Up

Polestar's growth story is now a test of execution against a massive, still-expanding market. The company's 2025 sales surge was powered by a fundamental shift in its go-to-market strategy. The most critical driver was the expansion of its sales network by over 50% last year, a move away from a pure online model toward a traditional dealer-led channel. This isn't just about adding points of sale; it's about building the scalable distribution infrastructure needed to capture volume in a competitive premium segment.

That infrastructure is being deployed into a market with significant room to grow. While the overall European car market was flat, the battery-electric segment is still in its early innings. Through November, battery-electric cars captured 16.9% of the EU market share, up from 13.4% a year earlier. This indicates a clear secular trend, but also a vast TAM that remains largely untapped. For a brand like Polestar, which targets the premium EV niche, this is the growth runway. The company's ability to scale its network and product line-up will determine how much of that future market it can claim.

Funding this expansion is the next critical step. The company secured a $900 million financing lifeline in December 2025, a deal with Geely and European banks that provides the capital to execute its European focus. This lifeline is essential for covering the costs of network build-out, model launches, and the continued losses that come with rapid scaling. It also reduces the near-term risk of a liquidity crisis, giving management the runway to prove the model works before the next funding round.

The bottom line for a growth investor is one of market capture versus execution risk. Polestar has the strategic focus and the capital to scale. The European EV market offers a clear TAM expansion story. The real question is whether the company can translate its network growth and model line-up into sustained, profitable market share gains against entrenched rivals. The coming strategy update in February will be the first major test of its forward plan.

Profitability and Financial Health: The Path to a Sustainable Model

The numbers tell a story of scaling revenue while grappling with deep profitability. For the first nine months of 2025, Polestar's revenue surged 49% year-over-year, a powerful indicator of its volume growth translating to top-line expansion. Yet that growth is being paid for at the gross margin level. The company's gross margin was a deeply negative (34.5%) for the same period, a staggering 32.4 percentage point deterioration from the prior year. This isn't just a minor dip; it's a fundamental challenge where the cost of goods sold significantly exceeds sales.

A major part of the current financial picture is the non-recurring revenue from carbon credits. The company sold $123 million in carbon credits in the first nine months, a figure that was negligible a year earlier. While this stream provides a meaningful cash inflow and helps offset losses, it is not a sustainable pillar of profitability. It is a one-time benefit tied to regulatory frameworks, not a reflection of core operational efficiency.

Management is taking steps to improve the underlying cost structure. The company reports continuing reduction of materials costs and fixed costs, and has seen some improvement in its adjusted gross margin. However, these efforts are being overwhelmed by other pressures, including a massive non-cash impairment expense on the Polestar 3 model and ongoing costs from residual value guarantees in North America. The result is a net loss that more than doubled to $1.56 billion for the period.

The bottom line is that profitability remains a major, unresolved challenge. The company is scaling its operations and revenue at a rapid clip, but it is doing so at a steep financial cost. For a growth investor, the critical question is whether the operational efficiencies and scale benefits from its expanded European network will eventually allow it to close this margin gap. The path to a sustainable model is clear in theory-drive volume, control costs, and leverage scale-but the financials show that Polestar is still far from achieving it. The next few quarters will test if the company can turn its revenue growth into real cash flow.

Catalysts, Risks, and What to Watch

The path to validating Polestar's growth thesis now hinges on a few clear catalysts and a persistent set of risks. The most immediate event is the company's strategy update scheduled for February 18, 2026. This presentation is the critical catalyst where management will provide its formal product roadmap and, more importantly, its financial outlook. For investors, the key will be whether the guidance aligns with the ambitious scaling narrative or reveals new headwinds that could pressure the growth trajectory.

The primary risk to this thesis is a combination of external headwinds that directly pressure margins. The company's strategic pivot to Europe was driven by softening U.S. demand due to tariffs, a factor that continues to hurt profitability. At the same time, the competitive European market is intensifying, creating pricing pressure that management cited as a reason for the deterioration in gross margin. These are not isolated issues but structural challenges that could cap the margin improvement needed for sustainability.

To watch the execution, focus on two sequential metrics as the dealer network and production scale. First, monitor for improvements in gross margin, particularly the adjusted gross margin. The recent negative gross margin of (34.5%) is unsustainable, and any signs of stabilization or sequential improvement would signal that cost control efforts are gaining traction. Second, track the cash burn rate. The company's $900 million financing lifeline provides a runway, but the pace of cash consumption must slow as revenue grows. A deceleration in cash burn relative to sales growth would be a strong indicator that the model is becoming more efficient.

The bottom line is that the February update will be the first major test of the company's forward plan against these known risks. The metrics to watch in the quarters ahead will determine if Polestar can translate its volume growth and network expansion into the operational efficiency required for long-term dominance.