POL/Yen Market Overview: Volatility and Key Support Levels on 15-Min Chart

Summary
• POLJPY opened at 26.48 and closed at 25.10 with a 24-hour low of 24.56.
• Price declined from 26.48 to 25.10, with a bearish engulfing pattern at 18:00 ET-1.
• Volatility surged during the late ET-1 hours with a high turnover of 71,943.9 Yen.

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 26.48 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 25.10 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-14. The pair reached a high of 26.48 and fell to a 24-hour low of 24.56, reflecting a significant downward bias. The total volume of the 24-hour period was 670,337.0, with a notional turnover of 16,864,465.5 Yen.

On the 15-minute chart, price action shows several bearish patterns, including a bearish engulfing pattern around 18:00 ET-1 (2025-1113 180000), where a large bearish candle followed a smaller bullish one, confirming a reversal. Key support levels are emerging near 25.32 and 24.91, where the price found temporary respite during a sharp decline. Resistance appears at 25.81 and 26.13, which were earlier tested before a sustained break lower.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both turned downward, with the 50-period line now below the 20-period line, forming a death cross that signals bearish momentum. RSI is currently in oversold territory (~30) at the 24-hour close, suggesting potential for a bounce but not necessarily a reversal. MACD has turned negative and remains below its signal line, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, has expanded over the last 6 hours, with price near the lower band at 24.91, indicating extreme weakness.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute swing from 26.48 to 24.56 show 25.55 as the 38.2% level and 25.04 as the 61.8% level. Price has tested both, with the 25.04 level now acting as a critical support.

Backtest Hypothesis
The bearish engulfing pattern seen at 18:00 ET-1 (2025-1113 180000) could serve as a reliable sell signal in a backtesting strategy. To refine the backtest, please confirm the exact ticker symbol and exit rules. For example, if using “POLJPY” for Polkadot-JPY and preferring a “sell on close” strategy with a 1-bar hold (exit at next close), the signal would be confirmed by the close of the next candle. Alternatively, a stop-loss or take-profit could be added for risk management. Clarifying the ticker and exit logic will ensure the backtest aligns with the intended trading approach.