POL/Tether Market Overview: Volatility, Divergences, and Key Levels

Summary
• Price declined from 0.1665 to 0.1646, forming bearish momentum with a 0.1623 support.
• Volume surged to 4.87M at 20:30 ET, followed by price divergence.
• RSI near neutral zone, with Bollinger Bands expanding, indicating increased volatility.
• 15-minute candlestick patterns show engulfing bearish signals and weak bullish follow-through.
• Turnover hit $750,000 at peak, with 15-minute volatility reaching 0.1685 after 16:00 ET.

POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at 0.1665 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1646 by 12:00 ET the next day. The pair traded between 0.1611 and 0.1685, with a total volume of 32,301,392.1 units and a notional turnover of $5,079,485. Price action showed a bearish bias with several key divergences, particularly in the late afternoon and evening, which may signal potential exhaustion in the upward moves.

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish engulfing pattern from 17:00 to 17:15 ET, marking the start of a multi-hour decline. A 48.5% retracement from the 0.1665 high to the 0.1623 low suggests a significant pullback. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA during the decline, confirming short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100 and 200-period MAs, but recent intraday weakness could challenge its dominance.

RSI fluctuated between 45 and 60, suggesting a neutral to slightly overbought condition in the late morning and afternoon. However, price failed to follow through on bullish impulses, indicating possible bearish control. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly from 18:45 ET onward, reflecting heightened volatility. Price spent most of the 24-hour period in the lower half of the bands, suggesting bearish pressure.

Volume spiked dramatically at 20:30 ET (4.87M) when the price hit 0.1582, followed by a rebound. This divergence implies weakening bearish conviction. Fibonacci levels at 0.1632 (38.2%) and 0.1654 (61.8%) appear to act as short-term barriers to further declines, with the 0.1611 level showing early signs of support.

Backtest Hypothesis
The missing MACD data for POLUSDT means we cannot confirm Golden-Cross dates or run the 5-day-hold backtest for this pair. If the correct ticker symbol (e.g., MATICUSDT or DOTUSDT) is provided, we can retrieve the necessary indicators and perform a full backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-05. This would allow us to assess the effectiveness of MACD-based entry signals in capturing short-term momentum swings and validating their predictive power for this asset class.