POL/Tether Market Overview

• POLUSDT opened at $0.2045 and closed at $0.1956, with a 24-hour high of $0.2117 and low of $0.1912
• Price action shows a bearish bias, forming a descending broadening pattern on the 15-minute chart
• Volatility expanded during late ET hours as volume surged over 2.4 million
• RSI and MACD indicate bearish momentum, with RSI dipping below 30 into oversold territory
• Turnover peaked at $0.1912 during a sharp drop, suggesting potential support near $0.19

POLUSDT opened at $0.2045 on 2025-10-13 and closed at $0.1956 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14. The 24-hour range extended to a high of $0.2117 and a low of $0.1912, with total volume of 36,019,040.7 and a notional turnover of approximately $7,011,871.8. The price action appears to be consolidating in a bearish direction, with a descending broadening formation suggesting continued downward momentum.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average has crossed below the 50-period line, reinforcing the bearish bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA pulling away from the 100- and 200-period lines, hinting at a potential continuation of the downtrend. A key support level appears to be forming near $0.1920–$0.1930, where price has bounced on multiple occasions during the 24-hour period. A bearish engulfing pattern developed near the $0.2096–$0.2086 range on 2025-10-13, signaling potential short-term weakness.

Bollinger Bands have widened during the late ET hours, indicating increased volatility. Price has traded closer to the lower band in the last 12 hours, suggesting a period of consolidation after the sharp drop. RSI has dipped below 30, entering oversold territory, but without a clear rebound, caution is warranted. MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover, and the histogram is contracting, which may indicate weakening momentum—though a bounce could trigger a short-term rally.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the most recent 15-minute swing (from $0.2096 to $0.1912) suggest potential support levels at $0.1971 (38.2%) and $0.1946 (61.8%). For daily swings, the 61.8% retracement lies near $0.1940–$0.1950, aligning with recent consolidation. A breakout below $0.1920 could trigger a retest of the $0.1900 level.

Backtest Hypothesis
To build a robust trading strategy, we need to ensure the correct ticker symbol for POLUSDT is recognized by the data source. If the symbol is valid and data accessible, a backtesting strategy could be constructed using MACD Death-Cross events on a daily timeframe. By identifying all Death-Cross instances from 2022-01-01 onward, we could simulate entry and exit signals, measuring profitability and drawdowns. Confirming the symbol and data availability is essential before executing this analysis.