POL/Tether Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis for 2025-09-18

• POL/Tether traded in a tight range before surging to a 24-hour high of 0.2645.
• A key breakout above 0.2622 could confirm bullish momentum.
• Volatility increased during the early hours, with volume spiking near the 24-hour peak.
• RSI showed overbought levels post-breakout, suggesting potential pullback risk.
• Bollinger Bands constricted before the breakout, indicating a high probability of a directional move.

POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at 0.2516 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.2645, a low of 0.2506, and closed at 0.2597 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The pair saw a 24-hour volume of 70,194,208.1 and a notional turnover of $17,649,791.10, showing increased interest amid key price action.

Structure & Formations

POLUSDT displayed a strong breakout pattern from a consolidation range, with a key resistance level at 0.2622 acting as a psychological and technical barrier. A bullish engulfing pattern formed after 0.2622 was cleared, signaling renewed buying interest. A bearish reversal pattern emerged around 0.2635, suggesting caution for further gains. The price action also included a morning star-like formation as it bounced from support near 0.2515.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above the price during the breakout, reinforcing the bullish bias. The 50-period MA is now sitting at around 0.2605, slightly below the current close, suggesting upward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are still aligned in a bullish configuration, with the 50 MA trending above the 200 MA. A 100-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA could provide further confirmation of a bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line early in the breakout, confirming a bullish trend. The histogram expanded after the breakout, showing strong momentum. RSI reached overbought territory (70+) following the high at 0.2645, indicating potential for a short-term pullback. A move below 50 on RSI may signal weakening bullish momentum. Divergence between price and RSI may also emerge if the rally fails to hold, suggesting caution for further bullish bets.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly before the breakout, indicating a period of low volatility. The price then surged above the upper band, reaching 0.2645, a level that may now act as a new resistance. If the price remains above the mid-band (0.2600), it will indicate strong bullish sentiment. A pullback into the lower band could retest key support levels around 0.2585–0.2590.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout, with a 15-minute candle at 0.2645 showing the highest volume of 1,153,606.6. Notional turnover also reached a peak at this point, confirming the strength of the move. However, volume has since declined, suggesting a possible shift in momentum. Divergence between rising prices and declining volume may indicate a potential reversal or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 0.2506 to 0.2645, the 38.2% retracement level is at 0.2569 and the 61.8% level is at 0.2594. The current close of 0.2597 is near the 61.8% retracement, indicating a potential area of support or resistance. A breakdown below 0.2594 could target the next key support level at 0.2585. On the daily chart, a major Fibonacci level of 0.2635 may also act as a resistance for future price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on a bullish breakout pattern with RSI confirmation could be applied here. The approach would involve entering a long position after the price clears the upper Bollinger Band and RSI confirms momentum above 60. A stop-loss could be placed just below the breakout level (0.2622), with a take-profit at 0.2655–0.2670, aligning with the 26.18% extension of the recent swing. This strategy would aim to capture short-term volatility while managing risk with clear technical triggers.