POL/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-08

Summary
• Price rose to a high of 0.1867 before retracing to close at 0.1765 on 2025-11-08.
• Key resistance appears at 0.1867, and support at 0.1763-0.1768.
• Volume was moderate, with no divergence observed between price and volume.
• RSI hovered near neutral, suggesting limited momentum for a breakout.

POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at 0.1779 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.1867 before closing at 0.1765 as of 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 91.6 million, with a total turnover of approximately $16.2 million (based on 15-minute OHLCV data). The price remains within a moderate consolidation range, with no clear breakout yet.

Structure & Formations

The price movement displayed a bearish reversal pattern around the 0.1867 high, with a subsequent pullback to key support at 0.1763–0.1768. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed between 0.1867 and 0.1859, followed by a series of lower highs and lower closes. The price appears to be testing the lower boundary of a short-term descending triangle, suggesting a higher probability of continuation to the downside in the next 24 hours.

Engulfing and Reversal Patterns

A bearish engulfing pattern was identified at 0.1867, with a large red candle following a smaller green one. A doji formed at 0.1766–0.1767, indicating indecision and a potential short-term reversal. Traders should closely monitor the 0.1763–0.1768 range for confirmation of a breakdown or rejection.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, with the 50 SMA acting as a dynamic resistance around 0.1780–0.1785. The 20 SMA was slightly above the 50 SMA at the end of the 24-hour period, indicating moderate bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages both trended downwards, with the price currently trading below both.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the latter half of the 24-hour period, indicating bearish momentum. RSI remained in the mid-40s throughout most of the session, with no signs of overbought or oversold conditions. This suggests that the market is consolidating and lacks conviction in either direction at the moment.

Bollinger Bands

The price moved within a narrow range of Bollinger Bands for the first half of the session, indicating low volatility. As the market approached key resistance at 0.1867, volatility increased, with the price briefly spilling above the upper band. However, it quickly retracted and settled within the bands at the close. This suggests that volatility is likely to rise again as the price approaches key levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively moderate, with a spike observed during the formation of the 0.1867 high. Turnover remained aligned with the price movement, with no signs of divergence. The price action and volume were in sync, suggesting that the bearish move after 0.1867 was legitimate and not due to a lack of conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.1763 to 0.1867, the 61.8% retrace level is at 0.1814, and the 38.2% retrace is at 0.1794. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a larger swing from 0.1763 to a high above 0.1867 is also a key watch level at 0.1814. The price is currently consolidating near the 50% retracement of that move at 0.1815.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest described aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a candlestick-based strategy using bullish and bearish engulfing patterns. Given the recent bearish engulfing pattern at 0.1867, a similar strategy could have triggered a sell signal at that point. However, the success of such a strategy heavily depends on accurate identification of the pattern, confirmation through volume and price action, and proper timing. Testing this strategy on POLUSDT, using daily and 15-minute candles, could provide insight into how reliable such patterns are in this particular market.