The Platform Group AG: A Bullish Turnaround as Analysts Revise Forecasts to Historic Heights

In the ever-shifting landscape of European tech and e-commerce, few companies have captured the attention of analysts like The Platform Group AG (ETR:TPG). Over the past quarter, a wave of upward revisions to its financial forecasts has positioned the company as a standout performer, with estimates now suggesting a path to unprecedented growth. Analysts have raised 2025 earnings projections by over 60% compared to just three months ago, signaling a dramatic shift in sentiment toward this Berlin-based firm.

The Numbers Tell a Story of Reinvention

The Platform Group’s recent upgrades are not incremental—they are transformative. As of early 2025, analysts now project €1.65 billion in earnings for the year, a sharp rise from the €1.02 billion forecasted just 90 days prior. This surge reflects both the company’s strong Q1 performance and its aggressive moves into new markets through acquisitions and platform expansions. Revenue estimates have also soared, with the average forecast now at €683.8 million, a 30.34% jump from 2024’s €524.6 million.

The catalyst for this optimism is clear: The Platform Group has redefined its core mission. By focusing on Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV)—a metric it now expects to hit €1.3 billion in 2025—management has prioritized scale over short-term profits. This strategy, coupled with a 20% expansion in platform products announced in April’s investor webcast, has convinced analysts that the company is on the cusp of a “flywheel effect,” where growth begets growth.

The Financials Under the Hood

What’s equally compelling is the company’s discipline in cost management. Adjusted EBITDA forecasts have been raised to €47–€50 million, up from a prior range of €40–€42 million, indicating tighter operational controls. CEO Dr. Dominik Benner emphasized during the April 28 webcast that this margin improvement stems from “a leaner, more agile infrastructure” and a focus on high-margin services.

The data underscores this shift:
- EBITDA margin targets for 2026 are now set at 7–10%, up from 5–8% in prior guidance.
- Gearing ratio goals—a measure of financial leverage—remain conservative at below 2.0x, signaling management’s aversion to overextending in pursuit of growth.

Market Sentiment and the Road Ahead

Investors have taken note. TPG’s shares closed at €10.85 on May 5, a 5.34% jump that mirrors the confidence of analysts. But the real story lies in the widening gap between the company’s valuation and its peers. While European e-commerce platforms like Zalando and Delivery Hero trade at P/E ratios under 20x, TPG’s current valuation—based on the upgraded 2025 estimates—suggests a 15x forward multiple, a discount that may not last if growth materializes.

Critics, however, caution that the company’s reliance on GMV—a metric critics argue can mask profitability—could lead to disappointment. Yet The Platform Group’s revised EBITDA targets and conservative financial strategy appear to address these concerns.

Conclusion: A Bull Case Built on Data

The Platform Group’s story is no longer one of speculative potential but of quantifiable momentum. With 5 analysts now backing its 2025 targets and 6 for 2026, the consensus is clear: this is a company turning the corner.

The numbers speak plainly:
- Earnings growth of 10.26% in 2025 alone outpaces the European e-commerce sector’s average.
- Revenue growth of 30.34% positions TPG to surpass its closest competitors in scale.
- A €1.3 billion GMV target marks a 10% increase from prior guidance, with execution already visible in Q1’s results.

For investors, the question is no longer whether The Platform Group can deliver—its actions in 2025 have already answered that. The real question is whether the market will finally catch up to its potential. At current valuations, the risk-reward calculus leans heavily in favor of the bulls.