Plasma/Tether XPLUSDT Market Overview

• Plasma/Tether (XPLUSDT) dropped to a 24-hour low of 0.8508 amid strong bearish momentum.
• Price broke below key support levels, with volume peaking near the lows.
• RSI hit oversold levels, while MACD remained bearish with no sign of reversal.
• Volatility expanded during the drop, with Bollinger Bands widening after a contraction.
• A large engulfing bearish pattern formed after midday, signaling ongoing bearish bias.

Plasma/Tether (XPLUSDT) opened at 0.9349 on 2025-10-07 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.9367, and closed at 0.8649 by 2025-10-08 12:00 ET, with a low of 0.8508. The pair traded with a total volume of 1.22 billion and a notional turnover of 1.03 billion USD over the 24-hour period. Price action was characterized by a sharp decline and a bearish continuation pattern.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bearish engulfing pattern following the midday break, confirming a breakdown below critical support levels. The structure suggests a potential continuation of the downward move. A key support level was breached at 0.8611, with the next level likely at 0.8508, which coincided with a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the prior rally. A bearish continuation is probable unless the price reclaims 0.8729, which acts as a short-term resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are trending downward, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period lines are both below the 200-period, which is rare for this time frame and indicates a strong bearish alignment. This setup supports the view that the bearish momentum is likely to persist.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is in negative territory and remains bearish, with no sign of a bullish crossover. RSI has dropped into oversold territory around 30, suggesting a potential near-term bounce. However, the lack of divergence between price and RSI indicates a continuation of the bearish trend. Both indicators point to a scenario where selling pressure dominates.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the downward move, indicating heightened volatility. The price closed near the lower band on several occasions, especially during the morning and afternoon sessions. A contraction of the bands may signal a potential consolidation period, but current positioning suggests continued bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked near the price lows, confirming the bearish breakdown. The notional turnover mirrored the price action closely, showing no divergence. Increased selling pressure was evident in the afternoon and early evening sessions. The correlation between price and turnover supports the bearish narrative and suggests that the recent decline is supported by real trading activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (0.8611) was broken, with the price extending toward the 78.6% level (0.8508). A short-term rebound is possible near 0.8729, which coincides with a prior resistance level and the 50-period moving average. If the price stabilizes above this level, a countertrend rally could follow, but the overall bias remains bearish.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short-biased approach triggered by a break below key Fibonacci and moving average levels, with stop-loss above the 50-period line and a target at the next Fibonacci level. Given the alignment of technical indicators and the confirmed bearish pattern, this strategy could be tested using a 15-minute chart framework, incorporating MACD divergence and RSI readings to confirm entries and exits.