US Plans to Disrupt Iran's Oil Exports by Halting Vessels at Sea

The United States is considering a drastic measure to disrupt Iran's oil exports by halting vessels at sea. This plan, part of the Trump Administration's maximum pressure campaign, aims to further isolate Iran's petroleum sector, which funds its nuclear program, missile technology, and support for regional terrorist proxies. The move comes as Iran faces intensified competition with Russia and Venezuela for non-sanctioned tankers, with over 100 vessels previously used for Iranian oil shipments now blacklisted by the U.S.

The U.S. sanctions have already led to a significant drop in Iranian oil exports, from 1.76 million barrels per day (bpd) in November 2024 to about 1.5 million bpd. The reduction in available tankers and the buildup of floating storage have exacerbated supply chain disruptions, driving up global oil prices and prompting some refiners to seek alternative crude supplies. For instance, China’s November Iranian crude oil imports fell to a four-month low of 1.31 million barrels per day (Mbd), a sharp drop of 524 kbd m/m, due to reduced shipments from Iran and mounting shipping difficulties driven by tougher U.S. sanctions.

The geopolitical repercussions of this plan are far-reaching. China and India, major importers of Iranian crude, have shown caution in dealing with sanctioned tankers. The U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control added four Indian companies to its latest list of entities sanctioned for their involvement in the international trade of Iranian crude oil. This action highlights the U.S.'s determination to target all aspects of Iran’s oil supply chain, as Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent stated: “The United States will use all our available tools to target all aspects of Iran’s oil supply chain, and anyone who deals in Iranian oil exposes themselves to significant sanctions risk.”



In response, Iran and its allies may adapt their strategies to circumvent these sanctions. They could increase the use of the "shadow fleet" of tankers, rely more on ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in international waters, diversify export routes, and invest in domestic refining capacity. These methods would help Iran to continue its oil exports despite the challenges posed by the sanctions. However, the long-term impact of these measures on global oil prices and supply chains remains uncertain, as the U.S. continues to impose additional costs on Iran's petroleum sector.