Planet Labs Soars 10.78% on 9-Figure Swedish Deal—Can This Satellite Surge Sustain Momentum?

Summary
• Planet Labs (PL) surges 10.78% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $25.22
• Swedish military contract valued at 'low 9-figure' sparks buying frenzy
• Options volume spikes 183% as traders bet on extended rally
• RSI near overbought territory (80.35) and MACD divergence hint at potential exhaustion

Planet Labs (PL) is riding a meteoric 10.78% surge on Monday, driven by a blockbuster multi-year satellite services contract with the Swedish Armed Forces. The stock’s intraday high of $25.22 matches its 52-week peak, fueled by a strategic shift to sell both satellite hardware and data. With options volatility spiking and technical indicators flashing mixed signals, the question looms: is this a sustainable breakout or a short-term euphoria?

Swedish Satellite Sales Ignite Earnings Optimism
Planet Labs’ 10.78% intraday jump is directly tied to its $100M+ multi-year deal with Sweden, marking the third foreign government contract in 12 months. Unlike prior agreements focused solely on data, this deal involves selling satellites to Sweden, creating a new revenue stream. Management highlighted the contract’s potential to add $10M+ annually in recurring revenue over a decade, a 3.5% uplift to Planet’s $282M trailing revenue. The transaction’s structure—recognizing revenue over multiple years—reassures investors while signaling scalable growth in defense-driven satellite sales.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Gains Altitude as PL Outpaces LMT
The Aerospace & Defense sector is gaining altitude, with Planet Labs outperforming sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT), which rose 1.04% on the day. While LMT’s modest gain reflects broader defense spending tailwinds, PL’s 10.78% surge underscores the sector’s pivot toward commercial space solutions. Sweden’s satellite acquisition aligns with global trends of nations bypassing traditional defense contractors for agile, cost-effective space capabilities. This shift positions Planet as a disruptor in a sector historically dominated by legacy players.

Capitalizing on PL’s Satellite Surge: ETFs and Options Playbook
• Procure Space ETF (UFO): +2.34% (Leveraged space exposure)
• SPDR S&P Kensho Future Security ETF (FITE): +0.96% (Defense sector tailwinds)
• RSI: 80.35 (Overbought, potential pullback)
• MACD: 2.12 (Bullish, but diverging from price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at upper band ($25.22), suggesting overextension

PL’s technicals paint a mixed picture: a bullish short-term trend (Kline pattern) clashes with overbought RSI and diverging MACD. The 52-week high at $25.22 is now a critical resistance level. For leveraged exposure, UFO (2.34% up) and FITE (0.96% up) offer sector alignment. Options traders should focus on high-leverage contracts with liquidity and gamma sensitivity.

Top Option 1: PL20260116C23
• Type: Call
• Strike: $23
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 69.97% (High volatility)
• Leverage: 9.93% (High)
• Delta: 0.889 (Strong directional bias)
• Theta: -0.207 (High time decay)
• Gamma: 0.091 (Responsive to price swings)
• Turnover: 99,765 (High liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% upside: $2.18 (Max(0, 26.41 - 23))
This call option offers explosive potential if PL breaks above $25.22, leveraging high gamma and liquidity. The 69.97% IV reflects market anticipation of continued volatility.

Top Option 2: PL20260116P22.5
• Type: Put
• Strike: $22.5
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 120.97% (Extreme volatility)
• Leverage: 101.28% (Very high)
• Delta: -0.182 (Moderate bearish bias)
• Theta: -0.053 (Moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.074 (Sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 6,234 (Moderate liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% upside: $0.00 (Max(0, 22.5 - 26.41))
This put offers downside protection if PL’s rally stalls, capitalizing on 120.97% IV and high leverage. However, its negative delta makes it unsuitable for bullish scenarios.

Trading Outlook: Aggressive bulls should buy PL20260116C23 into a break above $25.22. Cautious traders may short PL20260116P22.5 if PL fails to hold $24.50. Monitor the 200-day MA at $9.05 as a long-term floor.

Backtest Planet Labs Stock Performance
The backtest of PL's performance after a 11% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. The 3-day win rate is 50.20%, the 10-day win rate is 49.60%, and the 30-day win rate is 49.40%. While the maximum return during the backtest was 12.65% on day 59, the average returns over 3, 10, and 30 days were only 0.50%, 1.91%, and 5.90%, respectively.

Satellite Surge: Hold for Breakout or Exit at Resistance?
Planet Labs’ 10.78% surge is a mix of fundamental optimism and technical overextension. The Swedish deal validates its satellite-as-a-service model, but RSI near 80 and a 52-week high at $25.22 suggest caution. Sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) rose 1.04%, indicating broader defense tailwinds. Investors should watch for a breakout above $25.22 or a pullback to the 200-day MA at $9.05. For now, PL20260116C23 offers high-reward potential if the satellite story continues to orbit higher.