Will PI's Quiet Buy-In Beat the September Sell-Off?

PI Token Shows Accumulation Patterns as September Unlock Threatens Rally

The native token of the Pi Network, PI, has remained in a sideways trading pattern since the beginning of the month, reflecting a market with subdued buying and selling pressures. However, early bullish signals are emerging from technical indicators, suggesting the possibility of an upward breakout. Analysts caution, however, that a scheduled token unlock of over 106 million PI tokens this month could create downward pressure and potentially stall a potential rally [1].

Technical analysis reveals that the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator for PI has been steadily rising despite the flat price movement. This divergence is considered a bullish signal, as it indicates increasing inflows into the token even though its price has not yet responded. The CMF measures volume-weighted buying and selling activity, and its rise amid a sideways trend suggests that buyers are accumulating PI quietly in anticipation of a potential price move [1].

In addition, PI is approaching its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), a technical level that often serves as a key benchmark for assessing market sentiment. The EMA gives greater weight to more recent price action, and a decisive move above this level would signal a shift from a neutral or bearish sentiment to a bullish one [1]. This development suggests that the token is testing the strength of current support levels and that a breakout could lead to further gains, especially if accompanied by sustained buying pressure [1].

Despite these positive technical cues, the upcoming token unlock poses a significant challenge. According to PiScan, over 106 million PI tokens are scheduled for release throughout the remainder of the month, which could introduce substantial selling pressure into an already weak market. If demand is unable to absorb this increased supply, the token may remain confined within its current trading range or even break below it, risking a drop toward its all-time low of $0.32 [1].

The situation is further complicated by the broader market context. PI has struggled to maintain gains despite recent updates to the Pi Network, including the phased rollout of Version 23. The upgrade, based on Stellar v23, is designed to improve user control and introduce new functionalities, such as embedding Know-Your-Customer (KYC) authorities into the protocol. The decentralized KYC approach aims to streamline identity verification while maintaining compliance with regulatory standards [2]. However, despite these developments, PI’s price has remained under pressure and is currently trading near $0.35, only 5% above its all-time low [2].

The token unlock schedule reveals that two of the largest releases—12.3 million and 9.9 million tokens—are set to occur on September 6 and 11, respectively. These events could have a compounding effect on market dynamics and increase the likelihood of downward movement in the short term. Analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring whether the market can absorb the new supply without a significant drop in price [2].

Longer-term concerns are also emerging. Price prediction models suggest growing vulnerability for PI as it struggles below $0.37, with 35% of crypto users anticipating a potential collapse by 2026. The token unlock of 163 million PI tokens in September, valued at $60 million, is seen as a critical factor in determining whether the token can maintain its current floor or slide further [3]. The critical support level is currently estimated at $0.32, and a break below this threshold could trigger a deeper slide toward $0.30 or lower [3].

Source:

[1] Can PI Price Overcome 106 Million Token Unlock to Break... (https://beincrypto.com/pi-price-nears-breakout-but-token-unlock-looms/)

[2] Massive Pi Network Update Drops: What Every PI User... (https://cryptopotato.com/massive-pi-network-update-drops-what-every-pi-user-needs-to-know/)

[3] Pi Network Could Collapse In 2026 As Investors Turn To... (https://coincentral.com/pi-network-price-prediction-pi-network-could-collapse-in-2026-as-investors-turn-to-payfi-altcoins-in-september/)