Can Pi Coin (PI) Break Through $0.45 and Rekindle Bullish Momentum Post-Mainnet?

The question of whether Pi Coin (PI) can break through $0.45 and rekindle bullish momentum post-mainnet hinges on a delicate balance between technical bearishness, institutional optimism, and on-chain utility advancements. As of August 2025, Pi’s price action and ecosystem developments present a mixed narrative, with critical inflection points emerging in both technical and fundamental domains.

Technical Analysis: A Bearish Foundation with Breakout Potential

Pi Coin’s short-term technical indicators remain bearish. The descending exponential moving averages (EMAs) and a MACD Death Cross signal weakening momentum, while the RSI at 39.42 suggests neutral to bearish sentiment [1]. Key resistance levels, including $0.4646, remain untested, and the token is in an accumulation phase with low volatility [1]. However, the $0.36 level—a pivotal support-resistance zone—has shown resilience, with a failure to break below it potentially triggering a rebound toward $0.40 [6].

A critical test will come in September 2025, as the $0.3167 support level faces pressure from a 630 million token unlock, which could exacerbate oversupply and liquidity risks [1]. Conversely, a breakout above $0.4646 could trigger a 35% rally, with analysts projecting a potential move to $0.65 by year-end if institutional demand and whale accumulation persist [3].

Sentiment and Institutional Interest: A Tenuous Optimism

Market sentiment remains divided. AI-driven price predictions cluster between $0.44 and $0.52, averaging near $0.48, but structural challenges—such as weak trading volume and limited exchange listings—hinder broader adoption [1]. However, Pi’s ecosystem has seen notable progress. The Valour Pi ETP, launched on Sweden’s Spotlight Stock Market, attracted $947 million in assets under management (AUM) by July 2025, offering European investors regulated access to PI through traditional brokerages [3]. This institutional bridge has injected $125 million in whale accumulation (350 million PI) and a $20 million on-chain volume spike, signaling growing confidence [1].

The v23 protocol upgrade further bolstered institutional interest by integrating decentralized KYC verification aligned with global standards like ERC-3643 and Stellar Protocol v23. These upgrades, alongside Linux Node expansion and biometric authentication via Passkey, have enhanced security and compliance, critical for institutional adoption [1]. Over 14.8 million users completed KYC and transitioned to the mainnet, laying the groundwork for future exchange listings [3].

On-Chain Utility: Progress Amid Centralization Risks

Pi Network’s on-chain utility has expanded, with 21,700 decentralized applications (dApps) developed in 2025, including tools for commerce and education [1]. A hackathon with a 75,000 PI prize pool incentivized dApp innovation, while the Linux Node standardization reduced infrastructure fragmentation [2]. Despite these strides, centralization risks persist. The top 100 wallets control 96.37% of Pi’s supply, and validator concentration in Vietnam raises concerns about governance stability [1].

The September 2025 token unlock of 630 million PI poses a liquidity threat, but the core team’s 82.8% supply control could mitigate dumping pressures if strategic. Whale activity, such as the 350 million PI accumulation, suggests long-term bullish positioning [1].

Balancing the Scales: Can $0.45 Be a Catalyst?

For Pi to break through $0.45, it must overcome both technical and structural hurdles. A successful v23.01 upgrade in early September and a confirmed mainnet launch could drive institutional inflows, but this depends on maintaining strength above $0.36 [4]. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.3167 risks a decline to $0.266024, testing the token’s resilience [1].

The Valour ETP’s performance and Pi’s ability to convert dApp development into real-world utility will be critical. If the network secures major exchange listings or strategic partnerships, the $0.45 threshold could act as a psychological catalyst, triggering a 75% rally toward $0.85 [4]. However, without addressing centralization concerns and liquidity risks, even a breakout may prove short-lived.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Hinge on Execution

Pi Coin’s potential to break $0.45 and rekindle bullish momentum post-mainnet depends on three factors: (1) institutional adoption via the Valour ETP and future listings, (2) sustained whale accumulation and dApp utility, and (3) effective management of token unlocks and validator decentralization. While the technical and fundamental foundations are mixed, the v23 upgrade and institutional bridge represent significant progress. Investors must closely monitor on-chain metrics, ETP performance, and governance transparency to gauge Pi’s trajectory.

Source:
[1] Pi Coin Price Eyes 81% Rally as v23 Upgrade and Valour Pi ETP Spark Optimism [https://coingape.com/markets/pi-coin-price-eyes-81-rally-as-v23-upgrade-valour-etp-spark-optimism/]
[2] Pi Network Expands with Linux Node and KYC Integration in Protocol v23 [https://www.mexc.co/en-IN/news/pi-network-expands-with-linux-node-and-kyc-integration-in-protocol-v23/77720]
[3] Pi Network Announces Major Protocol Upgrade as Valour Pi ETP Trading Begins [https://coingape.com/pi-network-announces-major-protocol-upgrade-as-valour-pi-etp-trading-begins/
[4] Pi Network Prepares v23.01 Upgrade Ahead of September 3 Mainnet [https://coinfomania.com/pi-network-prepares-v23-01-upgrade-ahead-of-september-3-mainnet/]