PI Coin's $0.22 Support: Bearish Exhaustion or Buyer Takeover?

PI Coin Rebounds From Record Low, Shows Early Signs of a Bullish Reversal

PI Coin (PI) has shown tentative signs of a potential short-term recovery after plunging to an all-time low of $0.1533 during last week's market crash. Over the past three days, the token has defied broader bearish sentiment, posting steady gains as technical indicators suggest weakening sell pressure and emerging buyer strength. Analysts highlight multiple converging signals pointing to a possible 13% rebound in the near term, though key support and resistance levels remain critical for validating the reversal.

The Money Flow Index (MFI) and Wyckoff Volume charts have both revealed bullish divergences, indicating a shift in momentum. Between September 30 and October 9, PI's price made lower lows, but the MFI formed higher lows-a classic sign that selling pressure is easing despite the downtrend. Wyckoff Volume data further reinforced this trend, with yellow bars (indicating seller control) shrinking to levels last seen in early September, which preceded a 10% rally.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also showed a hidden bullish divergence, with the price forming higher lows while the RSI printed lower lows. This suggests underlying momentum is rebuilding, as each price dip attracts stronger buying interest. Analysts note that while selling pressure remains, its intensity has diminished, creating a foundation for a short-term rebound.

A critical support level at $0.22 is currently under scrutiny. If PI holds above this threshold, the price could rally toward $0.25, completing a 13% recovery. A daily close above $0.25 would reinforce the short-term bullish structure and potentially push the price toward $0.28. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.22 would invalidate the rebound setup, risking a further decline to $0.18 or lower.

Additional technical analysis points to a $0.205 level as a near-term breakout target on the 12-hour chart. A sustained move above this level could unlock resistance at $0.238, with further upside potential toward $0.264 (a 31% gain) and $0.290 (a 44% gain). However, a drop below $0.184 would signal renewed bearish control.

Exchange inflows have surged over the past two months, reflecting increased sell-side activity as holders prepare to offload tokens. Data from PiScan shows net inflows to major centralized exchanges (CEXs) consistently outweighing outflows, underscoring cautious sentiment. Funding rates on perpetual futures contracts remain deeply negative, indicating short sellers dominate the market.

Despite these bearish indicators, the Elder Ray Index suggests a market stalemate. While bear power remains negative, the absence of fresh spikes hints at potential stabilization. Bulls, though subdued, have not capitulated entirely, and the narrowing of sell-side momentum could signal an impending shift.

The upcoming Protocol 23 upgrade, expected in late Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026, is viewed as a pivotal event for Pi Network. Aligned with Stellar Core v23.0.1, the upgrade aims to enhance scalability, security, and efficiency while introducing DeFi features like a decentralized exchange (DEX) and automated market maker (AMM). Analysts caution, however, that technical improvements alone may not resolve Pi's liquidity challenges, emphasizing the need for token buybacks or burns to strengthen tokenomics.

PI Coin's recent price action reflects a complex interplay of bearish exhaustion and emerging buyer interest. While the path to a sustained recovery remains uncertain, the alignment of bullish divergences in key technical indicators and the potential catalyst of Protocol 23 offer a window for a short-term rebound. Traders are advised to closely monitor the $0.22 support and $0.25 resistance levels, as these will determine whether the current rally gains momentum or succumbs to renewed selling pressure.