Phillips 66 Surges 7.35% on Geopolitical Turmoil and Sector Optimism

Summary
• Phillips 66 (PSX) rockets 7.35% intraday to $140.17, breaking through its 52-week high of $144.96
• Intraday range spans $135.80 to $141.99, with turnover surging 0.82%
• Sector news highlights Trump’s Venezuela oil rhetoric and INEOS’ Gulf of Mexico discovery
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) gains 2.54%, anchoring energy sector momentum

Phillips 66’s explosive move reflects a perfect storm of geopolitical volatility and sector-specific optimism. With U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance on Venezuela and a string of deepwater oil discoveries, energy stocks are rallying. PSX’s 7.35% surge underscores the market’s pivot toward energy security amid global uncertainty.

Trump’s Venezuela Gambit Fuels Energy Sector Optimism
The sharp rise in Phillips 66’s stock is directly tied to U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent declaration to ‘get the oil flowing the way it should be’ in Venezuela. This rhetoric, coupled with INEOS Energy’s $5+ billion deepwater Gulf of Mexico discovery, has reignited investor confidence in energy infrastructure. The market is pricing in a near-term geopolitical resolution to Venezuela’s oil sector, with PSX’s refining and logistics expertise positioning it as a key beneficiary. Additionally, the 52-week high of $144.96 looms as a psychological barrier, amplifying short-term bullish momentum.

Integrated Oil & Gas Sector Rally as Geopolitical Tensions and New Discoveries Drive Optimism
The Integrated Oil & Gas sector is experiencing a synchronized rally, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) up 2.54% and BP PLC (BP) recently restructuring its leadership. PSX’s 7.35% surge outpaces sector peers, reflecting its diversified energy portfolio and strategic positioning in refining and midstream operations. The INEOS discovery in the Gulf of Mexico and Shell’s expanded pre-salt Brazil interests are reinforcing the sector’s narrative of renewed exploration optimism.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on PSX’s Volatility with High-Leverage Contracts
• 200-day average: 125.11 (well below current price)
• RSI: 18.73 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -2.21 (negative but diverging from price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 140.17, 12.1% above middle band (134.09)

Phillips 66’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition amid a long-term bullish trend. The Kline pattern of a bullish engulfing candle confirms a reversal from oversold levels. For aggressive traders, the PSX20260109C135 and PSX20260109C133 contracts offer high leverage and liquidity.

Top Option 1: PSX20260109C135
• Code: PSX20260109C135
• Type: Call
• Strike: $135
• Expiry: 2026-01-09
• IV: 32.35% (moderate)
• Leverage: 26.86% (high)
• Delta: 0.8206 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.2307 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0494 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 43,158 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($147.18): $12.18 per contract
• Why it works: High leverage and liquidity make this ideal for a short-term breakout play.

Top Option 2: PSX20260109C133
• Code: PSX20260109C133
• Type: Call
• Strike: $133
• Expiry: 2026-01-09
• IV: 52.06% (elevated)
• Leverage: 22.03% (high)
• Delta: 0.7977 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.3076 (aggressive decay)
• Gamma: 0.0331 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 36,827 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($147.18): $14.18 per contract
• Why it works: Elevated IV and high leverage create a high-reward scenario if the 52-week high is breached.

Aggressive bulls should target a breakout above $144.96 with a stop-loss below $135.80 (intraday low).

Backtest Phillips 66 Stock Performance
The backtest of the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSX) after an intraday increase of 7% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term performance. The 3-Day win rate is 55.23%, the 10-Day win rate is 56.61%, and the 30-Day win rate is 57.40%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the surge. The maximum return observed was 4.08% over 30 days, suggesting that while the market may experience some volatility, it generally trends upwards in the period following such a significant intraday gain.

Act Now: PSX’s 52-Week High is Within Reach—But Time is of the Essence
Phillips 66’s 7.35% surge is a high-stakes game of momentum and geopolitical timing. With the 52-week high of $144.96 in sight and Exxon Mobil (XOM) up 2.54%, the sector’s bullish narrative is intact. Traders should prioritize the PSX20260109C135 and PSX20260109C133 contracts for leveraged exposure, but monitor the 200-day average ($125.11) as a critical support level. If the 52-week high is cleared, the next target is $147.18—a 5% upside from current levels. Watch for a breakout above $144.96 or a breakdown below $135.80 to dictate next steps.