PG's $160 Call OI Surge and 0.71 Put/Call Skew: A Bullish Setup Amid Divergent Analyst Signals?

• PG trades at $143.18, up 0.92% intraday, with Bollinger Bands squeezing between $138.51 and $147.72
• Options market favors calls: 0.71 put/call OI ratio, with 11,882 contracts at the $160 call (this Friday's top OTM strike)
• Block trade alert: 386 contracts of PG20260206C150 ($150 strike, Feb 6 expiry) hint at institutional bullishness

Here's the thing: PG's technicals scream caution with a bearish RSI (38.16) and MACD (-1.32) below signal line, but options traders are betting big on a rebound. The question isn't whether PG will move—it's which way the $143.18 price will break given this week's options expirations and mixed analyst signals.

Bullish OI Clusters vs. Bearish Technicals

The options market is painting two conflicting stories. On one hand, the $160 call (PG20260116C160) has 11,882 open contracts—nearly double the next strike—showing heavy conviction for a 10%+ pop by Friday. This aligns with the PG20260206C150 block trade, where 386 contracts ($32.8k turnover) suggest big money is hedging a mid-February rally.

But don't ignore the bears: the $140 put (PG20260116P140) has 8,701 open contracts, guarding against a drop to the 200D MA at $155.35. The RSI hovering near oversold territory (38.16) adds nuance—this could be a short-term buying opportunity, but the 30D MA at $143.51 is barely holding.

News vs. Options: A Tug-of-War

Wall Street analysts are split. While 25% of brokers rate PG a "Strong Buy," earnings estimates keep getting cut—Zacks calls it a "Sell." Jim Cramer's recent bullish take on PG's dividend yield (3%) clashes with insider selling (CEO dumped $8M in shares) and regulatory headwinds (Crest toothpaste packaging changes).

This creates a paradox: options buyers are pricing in Cramer's optimism, but the fundamentals (shrinking margins, stagnant growth) suggest those calls could expire worthless. The key is watching whether Friday's $160 call buyers push PG above the 30D support/resistance zone ($144.37–$144.57).

Actionable Trade Ideas

For options traders, consider:

• Bull Call Spread: Buy PG20260116C145 ($3272 OI) and sell PG20260116C155 to cap risk. Target a $143.18 entry if PG holds above $141.71 (intraday low)
• Put Hedge: Buy PG20260116P140 if PG dips below $143.11 (middle Bollinger Band). Stop loss at $138.51 (lower band)

For stock buyers, the ideal entry is $141.71–$142.28 with a target at $144.37 (30D support). If PG breaks above $143.88 (intraday high), consider adding at $144.57. Avoid buying above $147.72—upper Bollinger Band—without a breakout above $155.35 (200D MA).

Volatility on the Horizon

This week's options expirations (Jan 16/23) create a binary scenario: either PG rallies to satisfy the $160 call buyers or collapses toward the $135 put zone. The block trade in the PG20260206C150 suggests big players expect a February rebound, but don't ignore the 200D MA bearish bias.

Bottom line: PG is a high-risk, high-reward play. If you're bullish, use the $145 call (next Friday's top OI) as a low-cost lottery ticket. If you're bearish, the $140 put offers downside protection. But keep a tight stop—this stock isn't giving traders any margin for error.