Petrobras surges 7.5% in two days as technicals signal bullish reversal

Brazilian Petroleum (PBR) advanced 3.96% to close at 12.07 on 2025-06-11, marking a two-day rally of 7.48% after bottoming at 11.11 on 2025-06-04. This rebound occurs within a broader context of volatile price action, which we analyze below through multiple technical lenses.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks reveal significant bullish reversal signals. The 2025-06-04 session printed a hammer pattern at 11.11 with high volume, signaling exhaustion of selling pressure. This was followed by two consecutive strong green candles with widening real bodies – the most recent session formed a bullish marubozu (minimal wicks), closing near its 12.09 high. Immediate resistance is established at 12.39 (2025-05-09 swing high), while the 11.11 low provides critical multi-month support. A close above 12.39 would invalidate the prior downtrend structure.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (currently near 12.35) caps recent upside, with price trading below all major moving averages, confirming the primary downtrend. However, the 50-day is flattening after the sharp decline from April highs. The 100-day SMA (13.15) and 200-day SMA (13.80) maintain negative slopes, though the 50/100-day spread is tightening. A golden cross would require sustained closes above the 50-day, which the current rally is testing – a decisive break above 12.35 may accelerate momentum as bearish moving average sequencing weakens.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover below the zero line, with the histogram expanding positively for three consecutive days – the most vigorous momentum shift since February. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator has surged from oversold territory (K=18 on 2025-06-04) to overbought levels (current K=85, D=78). This rapid ascent signals powerful short-term momentum but elevates pullback risk. The tandem bullish triggers in both oscillators strengthen reversal probability after the June low.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is evident as price breaches the 20-day Bollinger Band’s upper boundary (11.85), trading over two standard deviations above the midline. This follows a pronounced squeeze period in late May where bands contracted to their narrowest YTD width. The Bollinger Breakout confirms momentum acceleration, though historically these events precede brief consolidation when occurring below declining moving averages. The lower band near 11.20 offers pullback support.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns validate the rebound’s credibility. Down days preceding the low averaged 22M shares, while the two latest up days registered 26.6M and 30.2M shares respectively – the highest upside volume since the 2025-04-09 rally. This accumulation signature confirms institutional participation. However, the 52M shares during April’s breakdown eclipse current volumes, warranting caution about trend reversal confirmation until resistance breakouts occur on comparable volume.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has catapulted from deeply oversold (27.6 on 2025-06-04) to neutral territory (currently 56.8), its most rapid ascent in a year. While not yet overbought (above 70), the velocity implies short-term exhaustion risk near 12.30-12.40 resistance. Historically, RSI divergences have been effective warning signs; the absence of bearish divergence now suggests the rally may extend before profit-taking emerges.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the 14.46-11.11 downswing (2025-04-01 to 2025-06-04) yields key levels: 23.6% at 11.90 (recently breached), 38.2% at 12.39 (immediate resistance), and 50% at 12.78. The 12.07 close positions PBR near the 28% retracement. Confluence exists at 12.39 (38.2% Fib + January swing high + 50-day SMA), making it a critical inflection point. A sustained break above 12.39 targets the 50% retracement zone.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Notable confluence emerges at 12.35-12.40, where the 50-day SMA, 38.2% Fibonacci, and swing-high resistance converge – a decisive close above this zone would validate a bullish intermediate reversal. The MACD/KDJ/RSI momentum alignment supports further upside, though Bollinger’s extreme suggests near-term consolidation. Divergence is absent across oscillators, with volume trends harmoniously supporting price action. Probabilistically, the weight of evidence favors continuation after shallow retracements, with invalidation at 11.11.