Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) Market Overview

• Price surged to 0.2410 before retracing to 0.2334; key resistance at 0.2360–0.2410.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions during the peak; momentum turned negative after 10:00 ET.
• Volume spiked during the 13:45 ET candle, confirming the breakout and subsequent pullback.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the 13:45 ET breakout, indicating potential volatility expansion.
• A bearish dark cloud cover formed around 14:00 ET, suggesting a potential reversal.

Market Overview Summary

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-12, Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) opened at 0.2209 and closed at 0.2334 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13. The pair reached a high of 0.2410 and a low of 0.2198 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 1,525,634.98, with notional turnover hitting $381,173.57. The price displayed pronounced intraday volatility, with a late surge and sharp reversal.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed key support and resistance levels forming around 0.2300 and 0.2410, respectively. A strong bearish dark cloud cover pattern emerged after the 14:00 ET high of 0.2405, as the price closed significantly lower the following session. A consolidation phase between 0.2300–0.2360 followed, with a doji appearing around 15:45 ET suggesting indecision.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly, confirming downward momentum after the 10:00 ET peak. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average crossed above the 200-period line briefly, suggesting a possible short-term bullish bias, though this was quickly negated by the sharp reversal. The price closed below all three daily moving averages, indicating bearish control.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory after the 14:00 ET high, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI hit overbought levels during the peak at 0.2410, then plunged below 40, indicating weakening bullish pressure. Divergences between price and RSI were noted between 09:00–14:00 ET, suggesting potential reversal signals.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly from 13:45 ET onward, with the price breaking out above the upper band before retreating sharply. A tightening of bands was observed between 09:00–13:30 ET, a potential precursor to the breakout. The price closed near the middle band, signaling a possible continuation of the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 13:45 ET candle, reaching 171,301.59, confirming the breakout. However, volume dropped off during the reversal phase, indicating weakening conviction. Notional turnover mirrored this trend, peaking at $41,112.38 at 13:45 ET. A divergence between rising price and falling volume from 14:00 ET onward suggested bearish exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key 0.2198–0.2410 swing, the 61.8% retracement at 0.2314 became a short-term resistance. The 38.2% level at 0.2284 was tested multiple times, with price bouncing off it before the final sell-off. Daily retracement levels reinforced the 0.2300–0.2360 consolidation area, which now appears bearish after the 14:00 ET reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish dark cloud cover pattern formed at 14:00 ET could have served as a sell entry signal. A reasonable backtest strategy would be to close the position after a fixed stop-loss of 3% or a profit target of 2% from the entry point. This approach aligns with the bearish confirmation from the RSI and MACD divergence, and could be tested using PERPUSDT data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-13. The 15-minute time frame provides sufficient granularity to assess the pattern's reliability and timing.