Perpetual Protocol/Tether Market Overview

• Price declined from $0.1816 to $0.1603 amid rising bearish momentum.
• Key support at $0.15–$0.16 tested multiple times with mixed reactions.
• High volatility seen during the 13:30–14:00 ET period, with a low of $0.1273.
• Volume surged in the final 3 hours, reflecting increased market participation.
• RSI reached oversold levels near 20, suggesting potential short-term bounce.

Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) opened at $0.1795 (12:00 ET – 1), reached a high of $0.1816, dipped to a low of $0.1273, and closed at $0.1603 by 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 20,872,475.75 with a turnover of $3,358,654.09. The price action reveals a bearish bias and several notable pullback attempts.

Structure & Formations

The price of PERPUSDT formed a broad bearish channel throughout the 24-hour period, with multiple intraday bearish engulfing patterns signaling strong selling pressure. Key support levels emerged around $0.15–$0.16 and $0.14–$0.15, with the latter showing some resilience but failing to hold in the final 2–3 hours. A significant bearish gap appeared during the 13:30–14:00 ET period as price dropped below $0.13, indicating a rapid shift in sentiment. The candlestick at that hour closed near the session low, suggesting a loss of bearish conviction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into bearish territory early in the session, confirming a short-term downtrend. By the final hours, the 50-period MA sat firmly above the 20-period MA, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, price broke below the 200-period MA, indicating a potential long-term bearish bias. The 50-period and 100-period MAs are converging at ~$0.17–$0.18, which could act as a key resistance if the price fails to close above it for two consecutive days.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 15:00 ET, with a bearish histogram expansion, confirming the strength of the downtrend. RSI hit oversold levels near 20 during the 13:00–14:00 ET period, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound, though bearish momentum remains strong. A divergence between RSI and price movement near the session low suggests caution for any bounce, as it may fail to hold above $0.16.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 13:30–14:00 ET period, with the upper band touching $0.1816 and the lower band plummeting to $0.1273. Price closed near the lower band, indicating heightened bearish pressure. The band width widened to 1.13%, the highest in the 24-hour period, pointing to a likely continuation of the current trend or a sharp correction if the price breaks above $0.165–$0.17.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the final 3 hours of the session, with the last 15-minute candle showing a turnover of over $161,000, indicating increased selling pressure. The largest volume candle (13:30–14:00 ET) had a turnover of $102,000 and closed at $0.1603. This suggests that the move below $0.13 was driven by strong institutional or algorithmic selling. Volume and price moved in alignment during this period, providing confirmation of the bearish breakdown.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.1816 to $0.1273, the 38.2% level lies at ~$0.158 and the 61.8% level at ~$0.144. Price bounced near the 38.2% level but failed to hold above $0.16. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level for the broader downtrend from $0.18 to $0.1603 is at ~$0.17, which could act as a critical resistance if the price rebounds.

Backtest Hypothesis

To better understand the bearish momentum and potential entry points in PERPUSDT, a backtest strategy could be built around detecting MACD death crosses—where the MACD line crosses below the signal line. While attempting to retrieve MACD data for PERPUSDT, the data source failed to recognize the symbol, likely due to variations in ticker formatting. A potential solution would be to use an exact symbol format recognized by the data provider, such as PERPUSDT.P or PERP-USD. Alternatively, if the exact dates of past MACD death crosses are known, the backtest can be executed directly. This would allow for a clearer assessment of the asset’s historical behavior around such events, especially in relation to the current bearish setup.