Pepe/Tether Market Overview: A Deepening Bearish Trend with Oversold Momentum

• Price declined from 1.089e-05 to 1.063e-05 over 24 hours, with bearish momentum intensifying after 18:00 ET.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions by 10:00 ET but failed to confirm a reversal, highlighting bearish dominance.
• Volume surged in the 18:00–20:00 ET range, confirming bearish breakdowns and confirming price action.
• Bollinger Bands contracted before 12:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion and bearish breakout below the 20-period MA.
• Key Fibonacci levels at 1.076e-05 (61.8%) and 1.071e-05 (78.6%) were repeatedly tested, showing strong bearish control.

Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) opened at 1.085e-05 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.063e-05 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 1.092e-05 and a low of 1.056e-05 during the 24-hour period. Total trading volume reached 2.92e+12, with a notional turnover of approximately $3.14 billion.

The structure of the 24-hour price action reveals a bearish dominance, especially in the latter half of the session. After a midday consolidation, a sharp breakdown occurred between 18:00 and 20:00 ET, with multiple bearish engulfing candles confirming a shift in momentum. Key support levels such as 1.076e-05 and 1.071e-05 (Fibonacci 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels) were repeatedly tested but failed to provide a convincing bounce. A bearish engulfing pattern at 19:00 ET marked a significant turning point, initiating a leg lower that held through the remainder of the day.

Moving Averages and Volatility Signals a Deepening Trend

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key swing highs, reinforcing bearish bias. The 20-period MA, which had been acting as a short-term resistance, was decisively breached in the early evening session. Bollinger Bands showed a notable contraction before 12:00 ET, followed by a rapid expansion after the breakdown below the 20-period MA, confirming heightened volatility and bearish continuation. Price remained consistently below both moving averages, with no signs of a near-term reversal.

MACD showed bearish divergence with price in the midday period, with the histogram shrinking while the price continued lower. RSI crossed into oversold territory below 30 in the early morning hours but failed to find a floor, suggesting a lack of buying interest at lower levels. These signals, combined with strong volume in the breakdown phase, indicate that the bearish momentum is likely to persist unless there is a clear bullish reversal pattern at 1.06e-05 or below.

Looking ahead, traders should watch for a potential bounce at 1.06e-05 and a test of the 1.064e-05 resistance level. A break above this level with increased volume could signal a temporary pause in the downtrend. However, failure to hold above 1.065e-05 may accelerate the bearish move toward 1.055e-05. Investors are advised to remain cautious and monitor the 1.063e-05–1.065e-05 range for signs of a reversal or breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis: Momentum-Based Short Strategy on Oversold RSI

The backtesting strategy suggests initiating short positions when RSI dips below 30 and price closes below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart. Stop-loss is placed 0.5% above the entry point, and take-profit is set at 1.065e-05 and 1.06e-05. Given the recent breakdown and RSI’s failed bounce from oversold levels, this strategy aligns with the observed bearish pattern. However, the lack of confirmation in the morning session suggests the strategy may require tighter risk parameters or a more aggressive exit at 1.065e-05 to manage downside risk.