Pepe/Tether Market Overview

• Price dipped sharply after a strong morning rally, closing lower with declining momentum.
• Key support tested around $0.00000718, with volume spikes during the breakdown.
• Volatility surged mid-day, with Bollinger Bands expanding and RSI indicating oversold conditions.
• Turnover ballooned during the selloff, hinting at increased participation during the move.
• A long-legged doji near $0.00000718 and 61.8% Fibonacci level suggests indecision and possible reversal.

24-Hour Snapshot: October 11, 2025

Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) opened at $0.00000879 on October 10, 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.00000889 before noon, and closed at $0.00000720 as of 12:00 ET October 11. The total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately $45.6 billion, while notional turnover was $3.32 billion. Price action shows a volatile pullback after a morning consolidation phase, with notable breakdown in early evening ET.

1. Structure & Formations

The price structure on the 15-minute chart revealed a sharp breakdown starting at 17:45 ET, with the formation of a long-legged doji at $0.00000718, a key Fibonacci 61.8% level. This suggests indecision and possible short-term reversal. A series of bearish engulfing patterns followed, confirming downward momentum. Key supports to watch include $0.00000710 and $0.00000700, with $0.00000695 serving as a critical level below that.

2. Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly after 18:00 ET, reinforcing the bearish shift. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, but the recent sharp decline has pulled the 100-period MA down sharply, signaling possible near-term correction. The crossover of the 50-period and 200-period moving averages remains a key watch for longer-term bearish confirmation.

3. MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish with a negative histogram after the breakdown, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI reached an oversold level near 28 during the selloff, suggesting possible support. However, RSI has not confirmed a strong reversal yet. The combination of oversold RSI and a bearish MACD divergence may indicate a potential bounce, but the bearish momentum could persist unless a strong bullish reversal forms.

4. Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion during the selloff, with price falling well below the 20-period lower band. This indicates high volatility and a possible overreaction. The price is currently hovering near the lower band, and a close back within the band would be a positive sign. A sustained move below could trigger further bearish momentum but may also invite short-covering and a bounce.

5. Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked during the breakdown, with a single candle at 17:45 ET contributing over $1.386 billion in volume and $993 million in turnover, indicating increased selling pressure. The volume surged again in the late ET hours but remained below the midday levels. No clear divergence between volume and price action was observed, suggesting strong confirmation of the breakdown. The large volume during the breakdown could signal accumulation by shorts or profit-taking by longs.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart showed a breakdown at the 61.8% level near $0.00000718, confirming bearish sentiment. The 50% and 38.2% levels were already breached earlier in the day. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 50% retracements are currently below the current price and may serve as future support levels if a bounce occurs.

7. Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering a long position when RSI reaches oversold levels (below 30) and the price closes above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss is placed below the most recent 15-minute low, with a target set at the next Fibonacci resistance level. The current situation appears to align with this hypothesis, as RSI hit 28 and the price is near a key Fibonacci support. If the price bounces and holds above the 50-period MA, this could present an entry opportunity. However, bearish momentum may still dominate unless a strong bullish reversal forms.