Is Pepe (PEPE) Set for a 35% Rebound as Key Support Holds Amid Mixed Market Signals?

The memecoin market has long been a theater of volatility, and Pepe (PEPE) is no exception. As of November 2025, the token finds itself in a precarious yet potentially pivotal position, with conflicting price signals and a fragile balance between bearish pressure and nascent buying interest. This article examines whether PEPE is poised for a 35% rebound, focusing on technical resilience at key support levels and the interplay of on-chain activity and market sentiment.

Technical Resilience: A Fragile Equilibrium

PEPE's price action in November 2025 reveals a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. Two distinct reports highlight a divergence in price metrics: one pegs the token at $0.054168, holding above a critical support level of $0.053985, while another places it at $0.054747, stabilizing just above $0.054716 after a 19.3% weekly decline. These discrepancies underscore the token's volatility but also point to a recurring theme-PEPE's ability to cling to support levels despite sharp corrections.

On-chain data from mid-November suggests a potential shift in dynamics. A 72% surge in trading volume to 2.70 trillion tokens near resistance at $0.000007249 indicates coordinated positioning by large players, possibly signaling accumulation rather than panic selling. Meanwhile, top Ethereum addresses have increased PEPE holdings, while exchange wallets show a decline, hinting at a possible shift from speculative trading to long-term accumulation. However, this optimism is tempered by bearish indicators: in early November, PEPE traded under heavy pressure near $0.00000068, with an RSI near 31–35, suggesting sellers were losing momentum but not yet overwhelmed.

The immediate technical outlook hinges on whether PEPE can hold its current support levels. A break below $0.054716 or $0.053979 could trigger further declines, while a sustained rebound above resistance at $0.054931 might reignite bullish sentiment.

Market Sentiment: Controversy and Uncertainty

Beyond technicals, market sentiment for PEPE is clouded by external factors. The Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun, which has been linked to PEPE's ecosystem, recently faced allegations of a $436.5 million USDC cash-out to Kraken and Circle. While Pump.fun's co-founder denied these claims, calling the transfers part of standard treasury management, the controversy has sown doubt among investors. This reputational risk could exacerbate selling pressure, particularly if broader memecoin sentiment turns bearish.

Quantitative social sentiment data for PEPE remains elusive. Despite the well-documented influence of Reddit and Twitter on short-term volatility, no direct metrics for PEPE's community engagement were found in November 2025. This absence of real-time sentiment analysis-a critical tool for gauging retail-driven rallies-leaves a gap in assessing the token's potential for a 35% rebound.

The Path to a 35% Rebound: Conditions and Constraints

A 35% rebound would require a confluence of factors:
1. Sustained Support Holding: If PEPE maintains its current support levels ($0.054716 or $0.053979) without a breakdown, buyers may regain confidence. The RSI's proximity to oversold territory (38–35) suggests a potential bounce.
2. On-Chain Accumulation: Continued inflows from large holders and reduced exchange inventory could signal a shift in market structure, favoring long-term holders over short-term traders. This is supported by on-chain data.
3. Broader Market Conditions: PEPE's differentiated performance against BTC and ETH-showing minor gains despite a bearish macro environment-hints at a possible decoupling from broader crypto trends. This suggests PEPE could benefit from a broader risk-on rally.

However, the 19.3% weekly decline and fragile on-chain metrics (e.g., declining exchange holdings) indicate that sellers still hold the upper hand. A 35% rebound would also require a significant influx of new buyers, which is unlikely without a catalyst-such as a resolution to the Pump.fun controversy or a broader memecoin resurgence.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

PEPE's technicals suggest a precarious but not impossible path to a 35% rebound. The token's ability to hold key support levels and the on-chain signs of accumulation are encouraging, but these must be weighed against the bearish headwinds of a 19.3% weekly drop and unresolved market sentiment risks. For investors, the key takeaway is to monitor the $0.054716 and $0.053979 support levels closely. A break below these thresholds could invalidate the rebound thesis, while a sustained rally above resistance might attract new buyers.

In the absence of robust social sentiment data and amid ongoing controversies, PEPE remains a speculative bet. A 35% rebound is plausible but contingent on a favorable alignment of technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic factors-a scenario that demands both caution and vigilance.