Pepe (PEPE): Navigating Short-Term Bullish Momentum Amid a Fractured On-Chain Landscape

The Pepe (PEPE) token has become a case study in the paradoxes of memecoin markets. As of October 15, 2025, its price action and on-chain behavior reveal a tug-of-war between bearish fundamentals and pockets of bullish resilience. For investors, the challenge lies in parsing these mixed signals to identify whether the token is nearing a bottom or teetering toward further collapse.

Price Action: A Volatile 30-Day Stretch

PEPE's 30-day performance has been a rollercoaster, with a -14.29% decline as of October 2025, according to a CoinDesk report. The token has tested critical support levels, most recently dropping below $0.00000980, with technical indicators suggesting a potential 15% downside risk, per a CoinSpeaker analysis. A bearish pennant pattern has confirmed a breakdown, and the RSI at 38.84 points to oversold conditions, though not yet a clear reversal signal, according to an OKX analysis.

However, recent 24-hour data offers a glimmer of hope. Despite a 5% drop in October, PEPE saw a 2.5% rebound in the last 24 hours, outpacing the broader memecoin sector, CoinDesk reported. This resilience coincided with a 60% surge in derivatives trading volume to $3.67 billion and an 8.20% rise in open interest to $705.27 million, according to CoinCentral, suggesting speculative buyers are testing the waters.

On-Chain Metrics: A Tale of Two Narratives

On-chain activity for PEPE remains a fractured story. Daily active addresses have fluctuated wildly: while September data showed a collapse to below 3,000, according to CoinDesk, October 15 metrics revealed a rebound to 5,143, as an AMBCrypto report noted. This uptick, though modest, hints at renewed retail participation. New addresses grew by 39.01% week-over-week, and zero-balance addresses increased by 42.41%, signaling speculative inflows, per CoinCentral.

Whale behavior, however, tells a more complex tale. The top 100 Ethereum-based PEPE wallets added 4.28% to their holdings over 30 days, CoinDesk reported, while a single whale purchased $4.97 million worth of PEPE in the last 24 hours, according to an AMBCrypto article. Yet, this accumulation is offset by net outflows: whales sold 9.04 trillion tokens between October 10–11, compared to 6.62 trillion acquired, as detailed in an OKX report. Exchange reserves have also declined, with $19 million withdrawn in October, reducing circulating supply, according to an ETHNews piece.

Derivatives Data: Bearish Imbalance, but Not All Lost

Derivatives markets underscore PEPE's precarious position. Open interest fell 8% in 24 hours to $556.9 million, and negative funding rates favor shorts, as noted in a BlockNews report. Long liquidations ($326,000) far outpaced short liquidations ($9,900), reflecting fragile conviction, per an OKX breakdown. Yet, the long/short ratio at 0.89 suggests shorts dominate, creating a potential catalyst for a short-covering rally if buyers step in, according to BlockNews.

Technical Setup: A Cup-and-Handle with High Stakes

Technically, PEPE is forming a bullish cup-and-handle pattern, with resistance near $0.00001580, as CoinCentral noted. A break above this level could reignite momentum, but the path is fraught. A symmetrical triangle pattern also looms, with a bearish bias if support at $0.00000900 fails, per OKX's earlier analysis. For now, the token is consolidating between $0.00001118 (resistance) and $0.00001073 (support), a narrow range that could explode in either direction, according to CoinDesk.

The Verdict: A High-Risk, High-Reward Play

PEPE's short-term outlook hinges on three factors:
1. Whale Accumulation: Continued buying by large holders could tighten supply and trigger a rebound.
2. Derivatives Pressure: A surge in open interest or a shift in funding rates might signal a turning point.
3. Retail Sentiment: The 38.43% weekly increase in daily active addresses, per CoinCentral, suggests retail FOMO, but sustainability remains unproven.

For bullish investors, the key is to monitor whale transactions and derivatives flows for confirmation. A breakout above $0.00001580 would validate the cup-and-handle, while a drop below $0.00000900 could accelerate the bear case. Given the token's volatility and speculative nature, this is a high-risk trade best suited for aggressive traders with strict stop-losses.

Historical backtests of similar cup-and-handle strategies on PEPE reveal cautionary lessons. A 30-day holding period following the pattern yielded an average loss of 7.35% per trade, with a total return of -58.1% from 2022 to 2025 (Backtest results for Cup and Handle pattern on PEPE, 2022–2025). The strategy's Sharpe ratio was negative (-0.26), and losses outnumbered wins despite roughly symmetric gains and losses. These results underscore the pattern's unreliability without tighter risk controls, such as stop-losses or volume/trend filters (Backtest results for Cup and Handle pattern on PEPE, 2022–2025).