PEPE's 2025 Rebound: Can History Repeat with a 100%+ Rally?

The meme coin sector, long dismissed as a speculative niche, has increasingly drawn institutional attention in 2025. Among the most intriguing cases is PEPE, the Ethereum-based token that once rode the 2024 meme coin frenzy to a $10 billion market cap. Now, with technical indicators and macroeconomic tailwinds aligning, a compelling case is emerging for a short-to-mid-term bullish setup. This analysis explores whether PEPE can replicate its 2024 surge, leveraging both on-chain momentum and broader crypto market dynamics.

Technical Foundations: A Confluence of Bullish Signals

PEPE's price action in late 2025 has formed a textbook bullish crossover on the weekly chart, with the 50-period and 200-period moving averages intersecting near $0.00006644. This level has since acted as a critical support, with the token holding above it for over six weeks despite broader market volatility, according to a Cryptonewsland report. On-chain data further reinforces this narrative: the Spot Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has shown sustained buyer dominance since mid-September, while trading volume surged 60% year-to-date, outpacing price gains, according to a Coinotag report.

A deeper dive into technical patterns reveals a structured Elliott Wave setup. PEPE appears to have completed a corrective Wave (B), positioning it for Wave (1) of a potential five-wave impulse sequence. This model projects a target of $0.00002100-a 600% increase from its current level-assuming the token maintains its trajectory above key support at $0.00000293, according to a Cryptonewsland analysis. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown no signs of overextension, suggesting room for further upward momentum before encountering resistance.

Macro Drivers: Meme Coins in the Institutional Spotlight

Beyond technicals, macroeconomic factors are creating a fertile environment for PEPE's rebound. The broader crypto market is entering a bullish cycle, with Ethereum-based meme coins like LILPEPE and SHIB gaining traction through utility-driven innovations. For instance, LILPEPE's Layer 2 blockchain, designed to address Ethereum's scalability issues, has raised $27.3 million in its presale, signaling renewed institutional confidence in meme coin ecosystems, according to a CryptoDaily report. While PEPE lacks such infrastructure, its liquidity and community size position it to benefit from the same risk-on sentiment.

Regulatory developments also play a role. The launch of USDtb, a U.S.-compliant stablecoin by Anchorage Digital and Ethena Labs, reflects a broader trend of institutional players entering crypto with regulatory safeguards, according to a CoinMarketCap analysis. While this doesn't directly impact PEPE, it underscores a maturing market where speculative assets like meme coins can coexist with compliant infrastructure. Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan strategists warn that the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts in late 2025, potentially dampening liquidity for high-risk assets, according to a Moomoo report. However, PEPE's current price consolidation between $0.00000046 and $0.00000066 suggests it could weather such pauses if macroeconomic stability returns in early 2026, according to a Binance analysis.

Risk Factors and Strategic Entry Points

Despite the bullish case, risks remain. PEPE's lack of inherent utility means its price is highly dependent on sentiment, making it vulnerable to sudden shifts in market risk appetite. Additionally, the token's large supply (14 quadrillion coins) complicates long-term value accrual. For short-to-mid-term traders, however, the key is to focus on technical triggers: a break above $0.000007 would validate the bullish crossover, while a failure to hold above $0.0000060 could signal a retest of the $0.00000293 support, as noted in the Cryptonewsland analysis.

A strategic entry could involve buying on pullbacks to the $0.0000065–$0.0000060 range, with a stop-loss below $0.0000055. Given the projected Wave (1) target of $0.00002100, this setup offers a risk-reward ratio of at least 3:1. For those with a longer time horizon, the token's potential to rebound in mid-2026-driven by renewed meme coin interest-adds another layer of appeal, as noted in a Stealthex report.

Conclusion: A High-Volatility, High-Reward Proposition

PEPE's 2025 rebound hinges on a delicate balance of technical execution and macroeconomic tailwinds. While the token's speculative nature makes it unsuitable for risk-averse investors, the confluence of whale accumulation, structured price patterns, and a maturing meme coin ecosystem creates a compelling case for a short-to-mid-term rally. Traders who can navigate its volatility may find themselves positioned for a 100%+ return-if history repeats itself.